Thursday 22 December 2022

Remaining round two thoughts

Ratajski/Jansen - Danny wasn't great in round one, but unfortunately for those of us tipping against him, he didn't need to be, and he now faces a much sterner task against Ratajski and comes in, correctly, as a large underdog. I'd say he's got maybe a 19% chance in this one, which feels maybe slightly high just in the head, but not about to say it's clearly out of tilt. 9/2 isn't unreasonable, and we'll ignore it from a betting perspective.

Searle/Gawlas - Adam wasn't great in round one, but Burnett didn't quite have enough to get over the line and Adam's moved in, but is now facing a much stronger opponent and will need to severely up his game in order to stand a chance against someone of Searle's quality. He has maybe a bit more of a chance than Danny does in the first game, but only by two or three points, and the line is ever so slightly shorter accordingly.

Suljovic/de Decker - Mike was a bit hit and miss in round one, but that's what we know he is, so now let's see how he does against Suljovic, who's a little bit of the same, but should be a stiffer test than Smith was in the opener. He is actually installed as a marginal, correct side of a coinflip favourite, which does surprise me - I'm seeing him at near 70% to take it, which will reduce down a bit once we factor in his wild inconsistency, but I think it's worth a play - 0.25u de Decker 17/20 on Coralbrokes.

van Duijvenbode/Sedlacek - Karel played really, really well in round one against a tough opponent, and it gets no easier from here against one of, in my eyes, the top ten players in the world right now in Dirk. It looks like a straight 75/25 to me, such is the level of play that DvD is producing, whereas the market thinks it's even further in his favour. 4/1 isn't quite the length of price that we'd consider on Sedlacek, I'd probably need 5s to go with it, but don't just think this is an easy punt on Dirk.

Anderson/Razma - What Gary are we going to get? What Madars are we going to get? I think if we get the same Madars we got in round one, the first question isn't going to matter as he was not good there and Gary would easily win it. I'm looking at Gary as the biggest favourite of any game we've looked at so far in this post, and we've had some short ones. 86% is a lot of percent, so I think we can easily take 0.5u Anderson 2/7 and feel pretty good about that.

Wade/Williams - Jim is, for all intents and purposes, the same player as Wade right now, and this looks like a nailed on flip. The market disagrees, which we're fine with - 0.25u Williams 15/8

Humphries/Hempel - Florian did what was needed in the opening round, getting past a real evenly matched opponent, but this is an enormous step up in quality and it's hard to see him getting much joy out of this one. 5/1 doesn't look unreasonable, if anything it might be overestimating his chances by 2-3 percent. Not interested in this one.

van der Voort/Menzies - Market is having real trouble separating the two, which is understandable - Cameron's shown real flashes of quality, and Vincent has shown consistent mediocrity, and as such I'm thinking Vincent only has about a 40% chance. With Cameron being slightly odds against on Coralbrokes, we'll take the price, 0.25u Menzies 11/10, evens looks fine as well, if you can only get odds on then I think you would need to cut your betting sizing slightly. 5/6 wouldn't be a play.

Dolan/Hendriks - Jimmy wasn't great in round one, but unfortunately for those of us tipping against him, he didn't need to be, and now does he face a tougher opponent? I'm not sure. He certainly seems like a big dog again, and this looks like the same sort of situation as the Gary bet. 0.25u Dolan 1/4, going slightly lower for three reasons, one is that maybe I'm underestimating Hendriks slightly given we've already fired against him once and missed, two the line is shorter (although Betway appears to have 2/7), three I'm not sure Dolan is as close to his top form as I think Anderson is.

Dobey/Kleermaker - Martijn wasn't really tested in round one, this will be a lot different. Chris looks a real solid favourite, 2/9 would be where I'd set the line, Kleermaker's going to need to replicate what he did against Aspinall, except for a longer period, to come close in this one. Dobey's actually really close to a play, 1/3 I would probably go with it, but we can only get 3/10, which is not quite long enough to fire.

Smith/Labanauskas - Not sure how Darius won that one after going two sets down in bizarre circumstances, but there you go. He'll need to improve today, and substantially - Smith is 2/9 in some places, and with me seeing him up at 87%, that's getting close to the ballpark where I'd actually punt. One more tick and I'd probably go with it.

Cross/Williams - Great game from Scott to go through, Cross is a bit of a step up in class, but he's not outclassed, with the market generally thinking he has around a one in three chance against Rob here. That might be a little optimistic, Rob's been underrated forever and it continues to be the case here. It's not by enough to place a bet, we can't actually get 1/2, only slightly longer, and I'd have the fair line at 4/11. Going to be a tricky ask for Williams.

Schindler/Lukeman - The Martin derby is here, with Lukeman not really being troubled in his opener. He'll be tested here, he is live, maybe about a 60/40 dog. Schindler is 4/6 so nothing more to see here really.

Noppert/Cameron - Should be easy enough for Danny this, Dave did well to pull off the comeback against Ritchie, but Noppert isn't Edhouse. Noppie at 1/6 feels just about a perfect line.

Clayton/van Trijp - Danny dumped out Steve Beaton with a steady enough performance, but not really with the scoring that you think will trouble Clayton, he just did enough to beat Steve on the day. Clayton's right in between 1/6 and 1/7, and I think you could quite easily go 1/10 and it not be ridiculous. If you've got Coralbrokes who are offering the best price, I don't hate taking it, but it's getting a little bit too much on the short side to just pump in a lot of money for minimal return.

Cullen/Evans - Ricky did his job against Sherrock, but a sub-90 average isn't going to do it against Cullen, who's quoted at having right in the middle of the 75% and 80% win chance range. I've actually got it a bit closer, but still with Joe having over a 70% chance, but a combination of us underrating Cullen for some reason and with Ricky being unconvincing for months means we're not touching this one.

Will run down overall thoughts, actually catch up with a trip report, and do round three line checks at the weekend.

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