Have got around to running the Premier League players through the master computer, and using a sample of the last darting season, here's what it thinks the standings after Judgment Night will look like:
1) Michael van Gerwen 13.30
2) Raymond van Barneveld 10.76
3) Rob Cross 10.43
4) Gary Anderson 9.09
5) Peter Wright 8.76
6) Michael Smith 8.58
7) Gerwyn Price 8.20
8) Mensur Suljovic 7.87
9) Daryl Gurney 7.17
10) Simon Whitlock 5.85
This, I think, adds up to a touch over 90, it seems as if most players are rounding up ever so slightly. So what's my thoughts on this? A couple of things surprise me - Barney being projected so well being the first, but when he has played in events that count for my database, he's been really, really good, so I'll say it's not too ridiculous. Whitlock being clear bottom doesn't surprise me at all, Gurney being so low looks a bit odd on paper but as I've mentioned plenty of times, for whatever reason my model seems to underrate Daryl (although it did also say to bet on him to lose the match he did lose in the WC, so there is that). Suljovic being quite as low also is a bit funny, I'd have thought he'd be at least ahead of Smith and Price, but the model does tend to favour hit or miss players somewhat so Smith being ahead isn't that odd. Otherwise I don't think there's too much wrong with it - the top four in the world are in the top five places.
We're now crawling to the end of day 2 of Q-School, with the European event being well done by now (starting an hour earlier and having less than half the entrants obviously helps that), and I can't say that I like the format. It's four huge, long crapshoots. They appear to have 32 boards in play given how the byes have been formatted, I don't get why they don't hold this as a Swiss event, which is what you do when you want to work out the top n players in a large field event. If you don't know what that is, Google it, but the gist is that in each round you're paired against someone with a similar record. It seems feasible enough to do - let's say that we have an increase in players to 512 next year, it's a nice round number. Play six legs - no faffing about with a bull, as it's not a knockout we don't care who throws first with an even number of legs. This should take, at a very maximum, fifteen minutes per match - the famous Adams v Fleet leg from Lakeside only took three minutes. Each board needs to play eight matches for a full round of fixtures to be played, so allow two hours. You can run this from 12-8 as it is doing now for the first two days and get four games in for everyone on each day. End of day 2, trim the field to 256. Now each round of matches only takes an hour - play six rounds of games on day 3, and then trim to 128 players. On the final day, you've got half the players playing at any given time, so a round should only take half an hour. Play ten rounds of matches on the final day. You're now needing to play 24 different people, and if you're going to get a card over half of them are going to be against the cream of the entrants - it's a much, much better and fairer test of someone's ability.
As for who's actually qualified, I don't think Cadby or de Zwaan are surprising at all, Dootson is for me, as is Robbe. Aspinall's probably done enough already which is nice given I tipped him to come through, I'd have thought some of the BDO movers might have had a bit more impact.
Still not liking bad commentary. Still not afraid of double nine. Just a bit more subtle about things.
Friday, 19 January 2018
Monday, 15 January 2018
FRH 2017 Year End Awards
With Glen Durrant surviving match darts in a final that was a lot, lot closer than everybody thought it would be, that's the end of the season, and it's time for the much hyped* FRH year end awards.
Note - only one individual award per person, and it's sorted by importance. The season for these purposes started after 2017 Lakeside, so is more or less a year from today. Number of nominees varies depending on how many people I think are worth a mention
* - not even hyped, let alone much hyped
Best single tournament performance
Nominees - Jamie Lewis, PDC World Championship, Rob Cross, PDC World Championship, John Henderson, World Grand Prix, Daryl Gurney, World Grand Prix, Krzysztof Ratajski, World Masters, Paul Hogan, UK Open
Winner - Phil Taylor, World Matchplay
Could only be one winner for this really, and it has to be Phil in his final season getting that one last major title that many thought was beyond him, and he had to do it the hard way as well - beating current Premier League player Gerwyn Price, old adversary Raymond van Barneveld, current world number one Michael van Gerwen, twice world champion Adrian Lewis and world number two Peter Wright - and not letting anyone outside of Lewis get beyond half way to victory (and Lewis only managed it by one leg). A truly staggering performance. Elsewhere, Hogan came through what'll always be tough pub qualifiers, but to beat Keegan Brown and Jamie Lewis in the opening rounds (results that look a hell of a lot better now than they did at the time) before taking out both Gary Anderson and Adrian Lewis is an incredible run for the well respected veteran. Ratajski ran over both the BDO world finalists, a further quarter finalist and a Grand Slam competitor in a ballistic run to claim a first major title, Cross and Lewis's exploits have been well documented recently, while Gurney grabbing a major was a huge result, as was Henderson's run, not only beating van Gerwen but following it up with two great results over Norris and van Barneveld.
Match of the season
Nominees - Rob Cross v Michael Smith, PDC World Championship, Daryl Gurney v Simon Whitlock, World Grand Prix, Glen Durrant v Jim Williams, BDO World Championship, Kyle Anderson v Michael van Gerwen, European Championship, Michael van Gerwen v Peter Wright, Premier League Final
Winner - Rob Cross v Michael van Gerwen, PDC World Championship
Again, another award that writes itself - what more could you ask for than arguably the best two players in the world today being inseparable for eight sets, it looking like Michael's won it, only for Rob to say no, dodge match darts and win in a deciding leg. Cross could easily have had more games in here, his match versus Smith being my pick being my pick for the mutual sheer quality, Gurney/Whitlock, van Gerwen/Wright and van Gerwen/Anderson were all high quality affairs that went the distance, while Durrant's match against Williams saw some of the best darts ever played on the Lakeside stage in order to come back from the brink.
Most disappointing season
Nominees - Kim Huybrechts, Chris Dobey, James Wade, Adrian Lewis, Max Hopp, Corey Cadby
Winner - Benito van de Pas
Benito really should have been in the Premier League last season and had to have been in the last one or two players to be chalked off the list, but this year's been a huge regression - many first round TV exits, entered into the world youth as the number 1 seed and lost in the first round, no ranking titles and only looking close once. Huybrechts was a little better on the floor but worse on TV, Dobey should have pushed on to the top 32 but nearly missed the worlds, Hopp did miss the worlds, while Wade and Lewis have plummeted down the rankings, Lewis having a good Matchplay run but nothing else while Wade didn't even have that. How Cadby didn't qualify for the worlds given the number of close to free shots he had at it, I have no idea.
Best young player
Nominees - Nico Blum, Alex Hughes, Dimitri van den Bergh, Luke Humphries, Martin Schindler
Winner - Justin van Tergouw
The Dutchman has managed to retain his BDO world youth title, and has started importantly to make strides in the senior game - only losing to Scott Mitchell in the Dutch Open last 16, qualifying for one of the European Tour events beating van der Voort and giving Kist a very good game, and only just losing to eventual PDC world youth finalist Josh Payne in their event. Blum won the World Youth Masters and has looked OK on the European Tour, what Hughes did in the Champion of Champions at his age is remarkable, Schindler's had a solid all round season on the main and European tours, while Humphries won the Development Tour and van den Bergh claimed the PDC youth title and looks to finally be getting it on the TV stage.
Most disappointing news of the season
Nominees - Deta Hedman not winning the worlds yet again, Glen Durrant not trying Q-School, Morihiro Hashimoto passing away, PDC world championship wildcard clusterfuck, Terry Jenkins mailing in the entire season and missing the worlds as a result
Winner - Phil Taylor still not getting it quietly
I'd have thought at his age he'd be above getting into pointless spats with van Gerwen and Gurney, oh well. Hashimoto hadn't appeared on our screens for some time, but 40 is no age, Durrant deciding to stick with the BDO when he'd clearly be good enough is a shame, and you've got to think that Hedman's chance at a world title has gone now. Elsewhere, the PDC's announcement of the Ratajski, Petersen etc picks was horribly timed and made little logical sense, and certainly rustled many players, and it's so sad that we missed one last appearance of the Bull when it'd have taken minimum effort to qualify.
Personal highlight of the season
Nominees - Peter Wright finally winning a major, Lisa Ashton attempting the Challenge Tour, Berry van Peer making it out of the Grand Slam groups, Paul Lim being Paul Lim
Winner - Mensur Suljovic wins the Champions League
Who can argue with Mensur? He's been good enough to be in the reckoning for quite some time now, and this is a real tricky one to win, there's no easy draws whatsoever and he was able to come through and claim the title. Peter Wright's major was also overdue and well deserved, what van Peer did showed an awful lot of courage, and it was great to see Ashton (and a few others) look to challenge in the men's game and step out of a comfort zone to try to see what they could really do. And Lim! Not just the worlds, the World Cup as well. If only he could have pinned that double 12.
Best new tour card holder
Nominees - Ryan Searle, Steve Lennon, Jamie Bain, Martin Schindler
Winner - Richard North
He's yet to show what he can do on TV, but North has had a fantastic debut season - making a final and doing enough to get into the worlds with ease, also managing to qualify for the Grand Prix. Lennon and Schindler had similar patterns, each managing to crack through to the worlds plus one major, while Searle's been very solid on the floor pushing through to board finals on a regular basis. Bain's been a bit more hit and miss, but his European record has been very good and his numbers are a lot better than his ranking suggests.
Most improved player
Nominees - Joe Cullen, Krzysztof Ratajski, Mark McGeeney, Jonny Clayton
Winner - Daryl Gurney
It is one hell of a jump to go from a marginal top 16 player who might threaten to make a deep run in a big event once in a while, to being a no brain Premier League selection, going deep in nearly every single major event, and actually winning one. Gurney's managed to do that, and a bunch of hard work over the last few years has paid off for him. Elsewhere, Cullen was showing a bit last year what he could do but has now broken through the ceiling and has won on the Pro Tour having been around for ever, he just needs to translate it to the TV more often, Ratajski's converted from someone who's just a name around the place to a feared competitor and major winner who's cleaning up everything in his neighbourhood, McGeeney showed a bit of what he can do yesterday against Durrant, pushing up from a low seed to the BDO number 1, while Clayton has cracked on, also broken a Pro Tour duck and is established in the top 32 and in what's a fascinating race to see who'll join Price as the other half of Wales' World Cup team.
Player of the year
Nominees - Michael van Gerwen, Peter Wright, Glen Durrant, Daryl Gurney
Winner - Rob Cross
Who I thought I'd give this to changed a bunch over the course of the season. With Wright's start I was thinking it could have been him, and if he'd converted the Premier League or the Matchplay he'd probably have got it. Then his form dropped a bit, Gurney came through to win multiple titles including a major, van Gerwen looked invincible in the later majors, while on the other side of the divide Durrant has shown he's clearly the best there again, taking the BDO crown and putting in a great showing in the Grand Slam. It came down to who won that semi final for me, and hence it's got to be Cross - an incredible story that started from nothing and ended with a world title.
I will link this up on Reddit and add in some comments in a later post - next thing I'll probably do as Q-School fast approaches is the Premier League projections that I promised a while ago. I don't intend on covering the Masters, I'm away that weekend and it's a meaningless event.
Note - only one individual award per person, and it's sorted by importance. The season for these purposes started after 2017 Lakeside, so is more or less a year from today. Number of nominees varies depending on how many people I think are worth a mention
* - not even hyped, let alone much hyped
Best single tournament performance
Nominees - Jamie Lewis, PDC World Championship, Rob Cross, PDC World Championship, John Henderson, World Grand Prix, Daryl Gurney, World Grand Prix, Krzysztof Ratajski, World Masters, Paul Hogan, UK Open
Winner - Phil Taylor, World Matchplay
Could only be one winner for this really, and it has to be Phil in his final season getting that one last major title that many thought was beyond him, and he had to do it the hard way as well - beating current Premier League player Gerwyn Price, old adversary Raymond van Barneveld, current world number one Michael van Gerwen, twice world champion Adrian Lewis and world number two Peter Wright - and not letting anyone outside of Lewis get beyond half way to victory (and Lewis only managed it by one leg). A truly staggering performance. Elsewhere, Hogan came through what'll always be tough pub qualifiers, but to beat Keegan Brown and Jamie Lewis in the opening rounds (results that look a hell of a lot better now than they did at the time) before taking out both Gary Anderson and Adrian Lewis is an incredible run for the well respected veteran. Ratajski ran over both the BDO world finalists, a further quarter finalist and a Grand Slam competitor in a ballistic run to claim a first major title, Cross and Lewis's exploits have been well documented recently, while Gurney grabbing a major was a huge result, as was Henderson's run, not only beating van Gerwen but following it up with two great results over Norris and van Barneveld.
Match of the season
Nominees - Rob Cross v Michael Smith, PDC World Championship, Daryl Gurney v Simon Whitlock, World Grand Prix, Glen Durrant v Jim Williams, BDO World Championship, Kyle Anderson v Michael van Gerwen, European Championship, Michael van Gerwen v Peter Wright, Premier League Final
Winner - Rob Cross v Michael van Gerwen, PDC World Championship
Again, another award that writes itself - what more could you ask for than arguably the best two players in the world today being inseparable for eight sets, it looking like Michael's won it, only for Rob to say no, dodge match darts and win in a deciding leg. Cross could easily have had more games in here, his match versus Smith being my pick being my pick for the mutual sheer quality, Gurney/Whitlock, van Gerwen/Wright and van Gerwen/Anderson were all high quality affairs that went the distance, while Durrant's match against Williams saw some of the best darts ever played on the Lakeside stage in order to come back from the brink.
Most disappointing season
Nominees - Kim Huybrechts, Chris Dobey, James Wade, Adrian Lewis, Max Hopp, Corey Cadby
Winner - Benito van de Pas
Benito really should have been in the Premier League last season and had to have been in the last one or two players to be chalked off the list, but this year's been a huge regression - many first round TV exits, entered into the world youth as the number 1 seed and lost in the first round, no ranking titles and only looking close once. Huybrechts was a little better on the floor but worse on TV, Dobey should have pushed on to the top 32 but nearly missed the worlds, Hopp did miss the worlds, while Wade and Lewis have plummeted down the rankings, Lewis having a good Matchplay run but nothing else while Wade didn't even have that. How Cadby didn't qualify for the worlds given the number of close to free shots he had at it, I have no idea.
Best young player
Nominees - Nico Blum, Alex Hughes, Dimitri van den Bergh, Luke Humphries, Martin Schindler
Winner - Justin van Tergouw
The Dutchman has managed to retain his BDO world youth title, and has started importantly to make strides in the senior game - only losing to Scott Mitchell in the Dutch Open last 16, qualifying for one of the European Tour events beating van der Voort and giving Kist a very good game, and only just losing to eventual PDC world youth finalist Josh Payne in their event. Blum won the World Youth Masters and has looked OK on the European Tour, what Hughes did in the Champion of Champions at his age is remarkable, Schindler's had a solid all round season on the main and European tours, while Humphries won the Development Tour and van den Bergh claimed the PDC youth title and looks to finally be getting it on the TV stage.
Most disappointing news of the season
Nominees - Deta Hedman not winning the worlds yet again, Glen Durrant not trying Q-School, Morihiro Hashimoto passing away, PDC world championship wildcard clusterfuck, Terry Jenkins mailing in the entire season and missing the worlds as a result
Winner - Phil Taylor still not getting it quietly
I'd have thought at his age he'd be above getting into pointless spats with van Gerwen and Gurney, oh well. Hashimoto hadn't appeared on our screens for some time, but 40 is no age, Durrant deciding to stick with the BDO when he'd clearly be good enough is a shame, and you've got to think that Hedman's chance at a world title has gone now. Elsewhere, the PDC's announcement of the Ratajski, Petersen etc picks was horribly timed and made little logical sense, and certainly rustled many players, and it's so sad that we missed one last appearance of the Bull when it'd have taken minimum effort to qualify.
Personal highlight of the season
Nominees - Peter Wright finally winning a major, Lisa Ashton attempting the Challenge Tour, Berry van Peer making it out of the Grand Slam groups, Paul Lim being Paul Lim
Winner - Mensur Suljovic wins the Champions League
Who can argue with Mensur? He's been good enough to be in the reckoning for quite some time now, and this is a real tricky one to win, there's no easy draws whatsoever and he was able to come through and claim the title. Peter Wright's major was also overdue and well deserved, what van Peer did showed an awful lot of courage, and it was great to see Ashton (and a few others) look to challenge in the men's game and step out of a comfort zone to try to see what they could really do. And Lim! Not just the worlds, the World Cup as well. If only he could have pinned that double 12.
Best new tour card holder
Nominees - Ryan Searle, Steve Lennon, Jamie Bain, Martin Schindler
Winner - Richard North
He's yet to show what he can do on TV, but North has had a fantastic debut season - making a final and doing enough to get into the worlds with ease, also managing to qualify for the Grand Prix. Lennon and Schindler had similar patterns, each managing to crack through to the worlds plus one major, while Searle's been very solid on the floor pushing through to board finals on a regular basis. Bain's been a bit more hit and miss, but his European record has been very good and his numbers are a lot better than his ranking suggests.
Most improved player
Nominees - Joe Cullen, Krzysztof Ratajski, Mark McGeeney, Jonny Clayton
Winner - Daryl Gurney
It is one hell of a jump to go from a marginal top 16 player who might threaten to make a deep run in a big event once in a while, to being a no brain Premier League selection, going deep in nearly every single major event, and actually winning one. Gurney's managed to do that, and a bunch of hard work over the last few years has paid off for him. Elsewhere, Cullen was showing a bit last year what he could do but has now broken through the ceiling and has won on the Pro Tour having been around for ever, he just needs to translate it to the TV more often, Ratajski's converted from someone who's just a name around the place to a feared competitor and major winner who's cleaning up everything in his neighbourhood, McGeeney showed a bit of what he can do yesterday against Durrant, pushing up from a low seed to the BDO number 1, while Clayton has cracked on, also broken a Pro Tour duck and is established in the top 32 and in what's a fascinating race to see who'll join Price as the other half of Wales' World Cup team.
Player of the year
Nominees - Michael van Gerwen, Peter Wright, Glen Durrant, Daryl Gurney
Winner - Rob Cross
Who I thought I'd give this to changed a bunch over the course of the season. With Wright's start I was thinking it could have been him, and if he'd converted the Premier League or the Matchplay he'd probably have got it. Then his form dropped a bit, Gurney came through to win multiple titles including a major, van Gerwen looked invincible in the later majors, while on the other side of the divide Durrant has shown he's clearly the best there again, taking the BDO crown and putting in a great showing in the Grand Slam. It came down to who won that semi final for me, and hence it's got to be Cross - an incredible story that started from nothing and ended with a world title.
I will link this up on Reddit and add in some comments in a later post - next thing I'll probably do as Q-School fast approaches is the Premier League projections that I promised a while ago. I don't intend on covering the Masters, I'm away that weekend and it's a meaningless event.
Sunday, 14 January 2018
BDO final preview
Cool, the table widget thing that I used for the PDC final worked the first time, then I tried to centralise the text, it didn't work, and now on future tries it also didn't work, so a screengrab it is.
We've got the number 1 seed against the number 2 seed, something that hasn't happened in the BDO since 1999 when Raymond van Barneveld beat Ronnie Baxter 6-5. Will this be as close a game? I really can't see it. Durrant's played great throughout the tournament, only really being threatened against Jim Williams in the quarter finals where he had to rally from 4-1 down in sets, but that was an incredible push where he won twelve out of thirteen legs, denying Williams even the slightest chance of winning the match, slamming in four of his eight four visit legs in that spell. McGeeney in contrast has only really looked good in his win over Danny Noppert - Martin Adams really should have seen him off in the very first match of the entire tournament which went the distance, as stated the Noppert game was fine and the only match where he managed to win more than half his legs in fifteen darts, surprise package Wayne Warren had his chances in the quarter final, getting a good lead but not being able to kill 120 in the eighth and then faltering in extra time in the deciding set. Unterbuchner, another surprising player who you've got to think you'd see taking punts at the European Tour next year, also could have taken the semi final to a deciding set, but his scoring deserted him when offered six visits to break in the last leg of the tenth set.
Durrant wins this. He's been playing far, far superior darts to McGeeney across the whole week, and across the whole year really - dating back throughout the entirety of the stats I have in my database, including last year's Lakeside, McGeeney has won 100 legs, of which only six were in four visits, and just 42 in total were in five visits. He's also lost more legs than he's won in that sample, averaging just 85. So while McGeeney's numbers for this Lakeside look poor, they're actually a bit better than his historic numbers. The bookies have Durrant at 2/11, and this could end up being even more one sided than that, the score predictor I use thinking that 7-1 or 7-2 Durrant seems like the most likely set of outcomes. I'll probably watch it, because it ought to be quick. It's a shame that Durrant now looks like he's sticking with the BDO, he could have made a real splash in the PDC, but at the same time he seems that much better than everyone else that he may as well keep printing money and test himself in the Grand Slam, perhaps take a punt at the UK Open as well.
Coming soon will be the FRH year end awards, I might do them after the final.
Tuesday, 9 January 2018
BDO last 16 thoughts
The final round 1 game has just finished, and outside of Jamie Hughes going out to German qualifier Michael Unterbuchner, there's been a shortage of real shocks - 11 of the other 14 seeds have made it through, and I don't think anyone would have been too stunned to see Whitehead over Menzies or Waites over Montgomery - the Warren over Harms result is a bit of a surprise I guess. So what about the last 16?
Durrant - Fitton: Fitton only managed 5/10 legs in fifteen darts, Durrant got 6/9 - Durrant's shown what he can do over the last twelve months, particularly recently at the Slam, while Fitton's never shown that he can put together a string of tidy legs that might trouble Glen over a seven set match.
Whitehead - Williams: Conan got 5/11 legs in par, Williams 4/13. This is a concern for the seed who didn't have anything like an easy game against Nilsson, Whitehead's scoring when losing was also over five points higher than Jim's was, so the seed could be in a spot of bother here. Pity I don't have any stats from the Zuiderduin to look at.
Waites - Reynolds: Dean got just 3/10 legs in par, but so did Waites. Reynolds is in a few stats over the whole database, both in BDO events and the UK Open, and this is his normal game it seems. Waites is a touch better on average, and can certainly hit a higher peak, if it gets into a longer game his experience and general better standard should show.
Mitchell - Baetens: I mentioned Scott's performance in the previous post which was clearly the best so far by some distance, Baetens pulled together a weak 4/12 legs in par and with nothing else to compare it to, I can't think of any reason not to think Scott advances here.
McGeeney - Noppert: Noppert's played the better in both his prelim and first round game, we've known this one for a while, at no point in any of my database has Mark put in a performance that makes me think he can beat Danny if he continues to play as he has been doing - only really the last Slam match looked OK but he was drawing very thin if not dead at that stage so there's not much to read into there.
Warren - Mandigers: Wayne had a great first round game to eliminate Harms, while Mandigers had an otherwise alright 5/9 par legs. Question is whether Warren can sustain that level over a longer game, looking at limited previous stats I'd think Willem could, if Warren could then I think we'd have seen more over the course of his career.
de Vos - Veenstra: Low country derby here, Geert wasn't too impressive in beating the Dutch qualifier Telnekes with 3/11 legs in par, whereas Veenstra clocked in 7/12 being pushed hard by Kyle McKinstry. Veenstra was similarly impressive last year before running into Danny Noppert, de Vos played much better than this last year. Geert will need to step his game up and if he doesn't he'll lose, but he's certainly capable and this could be a good one.
Unterbuchner - Phillips: Michael was pretty average in his qualifier with 4/12 legs in par, and only had a slightly better 6/15 ratio in beating Hughes, but he's quietly got three twelve dart legs, so is showing spurts of class, Phillips only got 2/11 legs in par earlier today in an awful match where only three of the twenty legs combined were able to be finished in fifteen darts, he can very occasionally turn it on (see some of the later World Trophy games), but is usually incredibly mediocre even by BDO standards and should lose this one.
Durrant - Fitton: Fitton only managed 5/10 legs in fifteen darts, Durrant got 6/9 - Durrant's shown what he can do over the last twelve months, particularly recently at the Slam, while Fitton's never shown that he can put together a string of tidy legs that might trouble Glen over a seven set match.
Whitehead - Williams: Conan got 5/11 legs in par, Williams 4/13. This is a concern for the seed who didn't have anything like an easy game against Nilsson, Whitehead's scoring when losing was also over five points higher than Jim's was, so the seed could be in a spot of bother here. Pity I don't have any stats from the Zuiderduin to look at.
Waites - Reynolds: Dean got just 3/10 legs in par, but so did Waites. Reynolds is in a few stats over the whole database, both in BDO events and the UK Open, and this is his normal game it seems. Waites is a touch better on average, and can certainly hit a higher peak, if it gets into a longer game his experience and general better standard should show.
Mitchell - Baetens: I mentioned Scott's performance in the previous post which was clearly the best so far by some distance, Baetens pulled together a weak 4/12 legs in par and with nothing else to compare it to, I can't think of any reason not to think Scott advances here.
McGeeney - Noppert: Noppert's played the better in both his prelim and first round game, we've known this one for a while, at no point in any of my database has Mark put in a performance that makes me think he can beat Danny if he continues to play as he has been doing - only really the last Slam match looked OK but he was drawing very thin if not dead at that stage so there's not much to read into there.
Warren - Mandigers: Wayne had a great first round game to eliminate Harms, while Mandigers had an otherwise alright 5/9 par legs. Question is whether Warren can sustain that level over a longer game, looking at limited previous stats I'd think Willem could, if Warren could then I think we'd have seen more over the course of his career.
de Vos - Veenstra: Low country derby here, Geert wasn't too impressive in beating the Dutch qualifier Telnekes with 3/11 legs in par, whereas Veenstra clocked in 7/12 being pushed hard by Kyle McKinstry. Veenstra was similarly impressive last year before running into Danny Noppert, de Vos played much better than this last year. Geert will need to step his game up and if he doesn't he'll lose, but he's certainly capable and this could be a good one.
Unterbuchner - Phillips: Michael was pretty average in his qualifier with 4/12 legs in par, and only had a slightly better 6/15 ratio in beating Hughes, but he's quietly got three twelve dart legs, so is showing spurts of class, Phillips only got 2/11 legs in par earlier today in an awful match where only three of the twenty legs combined were able to be finished in fifteen darts, he can very occasionally turn it on (see some of the later World Trophy games), but is usually incredibly mediocre even by BDO standards and should lose this one.
Monday, 8 January 2018
People on Twitter writing cheques they probably can't cash
I'm going to put the under/over on the amount of cash this guy pays out at around £1.70, but let's see what happens
BDO - thoughts so far
So that preview didn't happen, there's simply so many players that I don't know about. That said, we've now got all the preliminaries out of the way, and are around half way through the first round proper, trimming the field down to the mid-20's from an initial starting number of 40. I'll have a quick look at who's played to date and is still in, and see what I think:
Durrant - seems fine, really had no trouble against Robson and slotted 6/9 legs in "par" of fifteen darts, keep that level up and it'll be hard to see who can stop him prior to the semi finals.
Thompson - got involved in a five set slugfest in his prelim, only managed 4/13 legs in par, was averaging under 80 in the legs Gilliland won, can't see that Fitton has too much trouble this evening.
Nilsson - we've seen him do well on the PDC European Tour, and while not showing those heights he was solid here, straight sets win with 4/9 par legs, would ideally like to put that up a bit against Williams in round two who's in form having finalled the Zuiderduin.
Waites - had a tough game against Montgomery and may well have been a bit fortunate, it was 10-9 in legs to Waites, only managing three in par (Montgomery managed four, although one of Waites' three par legs was a four visit kill), and averaging a mediocre 84 in the Montgomery winning legs. That may be enough in round 2, but after that, possibly not.
Harris - good god, he won 11 legs but only one was in fifteen darts. Only managed to average 72 in the legs the Turk won, whose numbers were even worse. Would think Reynolds will be far too strong third on tonight.
Mitchell - now here's the business. Had a tough opener against Labanauskas, but managed four twelve darters and a further five legs in five visits for 9/13 legs in par, and over 90 when losing. Labanauskas was equally solid, just a shame this was a first round match as by BDO standards this could easily have graced a semi final stage. Got to think Darius does go for the rumoured PDC switch now after this, but Mitchell on this form can bink Lakeside.
McGeeney - 3/13 legs in par? Sub-83 average when Adams was winning? If Adams could have even slightly pressured Mark (Martin averaged 76 when losing) then the BDO number 1 is out. Noppert should murder him if he doesn't pick his game up.
Noppert - has two games under his belt already, and has yet to drop a set. 5/9 legs in par in each round isn't really at the heights of last year, but you'd think he can pick this up, even so, if McGeeney doesn't increase his quality he likely won't need to.
Warren - apparently had seven perfect, and looked really good on the numbers - claiming nine legs, only one taking more than fifteen darts as he shrugged aside Wesley Harms. If he keeps playing like that then he could easily deal with Mandigers and give the Noppert/McGeeney winner issues.
Mandigers - whitewashed Kenny, hitting a just about respectable 5/9 legs in par, only the one real bad leg, but could certainly do with bringing an 81 average up when losing if he wants to put Warren under any pressure.
Telnekes - the relatively unknown Dutchman got through 3-0 yesterday, did stick in a four visit leg but only the two five visit legs to back it up. Did at least come through three deciding legs to show some clutchness, whatever that counts for, but losing those six legs with a sub 80 average isn't impressive and de Vos should get by tomorrow afternoon.
Unterbuchner - German qualifier who won through today against veteran Dave Cameron, 4/12 legs in par with a 77 average in the 11 legs he lost (actually better than Cameron's stat, believe it or not) should not trouble Hughes in the slightest.
Day - it is the same guy that made up the PDC numbers earlier in the decade, 4/9 par legs isn't too bad and he only lost the two legs all game, would have thought Caldwell could have pressed a bit more, I guess not.
Durrant - seems fine, really had no trouble against Robson and slotted 6/9 legs in "par" of fifteen darts, keep that level up and it'll be hard to see who can stop him prior to the semi finals.
Thompson - got involved in a five set slugfest in his prelim, only managed 4/13 legs in par, was averaging under 80 in the legs Gilliland won, can't see that Fitton has too much trouble this evening.
Nilsson - we've seen him do well on the PDC European Tour, and while not showing those heights he was solid here, straight sets win with 4/9 par legs, would ideally like to put that up a bit against Williams in round two who's in form having finalled the Zuiderduin.
Waites - had a tough game against Montgomery and may well have been a bit fortunate, it was 10-9 in legs to Waites, only managing three in par (Montgomery managed four, although one of Waites' three par legs was a four visit kill), and averaging a mediocre 84 in the Montgomery winning legs. That may be enough in round 2, but after that, possibly not.
Harris - good god, he won 11 legs but only one was in fifteen darts. Only managed to average 72 in the legs the Turk won, whose numbers were even worse. Would think Reynolds will be far too strong third on tonight.
Mitchell - now here's the business. Had a tough opener against Labanauskas, but managed four twelve darters and a further five legs in five visits for 9/13 legs in par, and over 90 when losing. Labanauskas was equally solid, just a shame this was a first round match as by BDO standards this could easily have graced a semi final stage. Got to think Darius does go for the rumoured PDC switch now after this, but Mitchell on this form can bink Lakeside.
McGeeney - 3/13 legs in par? Sub-83 average when Adams was winning? If Adams could have even slightly pressured Mark (Martin averaged 76 when losing) then the BDO number 1 is out. Noppert should murder him if he doesn't pick his game up.
Noppert - has two games under his belt already, and has yet to drop a set. 5/9 legs in par in each round isn't really at the heights of last year, but you'd think he can pick this up, even so, if McGeeney doesn't increase his quality he likely won't need to.
Warren - apparently had seven perfect, and looked really good on the numbers - claiming nine legs, only one taking more than fifteen darts as he shrugged aside Wesley Harms. If he keeps playing like that then he could easily deal with Mandigers and give the Noppert/McGeeney winner issues.
Mandigers - whitewashed Kenny, hitting a just about respectable 5/9 legs in par, only the one real bad leg, but could certainly do with bringing an 81 average up when losing if he wants to put Warren under any pressure.
Telnekes - the relatively unknown Dutchman got through 3-0 yesterday, did stick in a four visit leg but only the two five visit legs to back it up. Did at least come through three deciding legs to show some clutchness, whatever that counts for, but losing those six legs with a sub 80 average isn't impressive and de Vos should get by tomorrow afternoon.
Unterbuchner - German qualifier who won through today against veteran Dave Cameron, 4/12 legs in par with a 77 average in the 11 legs he lost (actually better than Cameron's stat, believe it or not) should not trouble Hughes in the slightest.
Day - it is the same guy that made up the PDC numbers earlier in the decade, 4/9 par legs isn't too bad and he only lost the two legs all game, would have thought Caldwell could have pressed a bit more, I guess not.
Tuesday, 2 January 2018
Post WC thoughts, Premier League thoughts, year end FRH rankings
Wow, what a performance by Rob Cross that was. Simply didn't give Taylor any chance whatsoever. Pity Phil couldn't pin that nine darter, oh well. Think it's been a really interesting tournament to see a lot of newer names progressing, which has resulted in big churn in the Premier League. Can't argue with any of the selections and it's the ten that I would have chosen - they've got numbers 1-12 from the FRH rankings excluding Taylor and Chisnall, which seems fine to me. Would have been a bit too early for Lewis or van den Bergh, and could probably have done their careers more harm than good, nobody else was making a compelling case. Darren Webster maybe, but that's about it.
Season is now up and here's the season end FRH rankings - LY indicates the position the player was at in the previous season:
In total, that's a churn of 24 players, the highest ranked player form last year not to reappear being last season's number 59 Mark Frost (although he wasn't far off). Obviously Rob Cross is the highest new entrant, but three other players managed to crack the top 50 from outside last year.
So what for the FRH Second Division Darts for this season? I'm going to score it a little differently this year - rather than just taking the first result between players, I'm going to add up all the legs won and work out the percentage each wins against the other. If you're 75% or over, that's the full two points, 25% or under, zilch, and progressing linearly between the two. Who will we invite?
Four highest active players not playing in the Premier League - Dave Chisnall, Alan Norris, Ian White, James Wade
FRH Wildcards - Kyle Anderson, Adrian Lewis, Joe Cullen, Darren Webster, Jamie Lewis, Dimitri van den Bergh
That seems like a good selection. I was tempted to say that if Durrant went deep at Lakeside, switched and won his tour card that I'd invite him straight in, but that's a big combination of if's. For those that are high up that missed out, van de Pas, Huybrechts and Klaasen have done little all year and all crashed out of the worlds at the first hurdle, Bunting's getting back there but hasn't shown quite enough yet. Lewis at least showed the quality in the Matchplay and is probably the biggest name not in the Premier League proper, Anderson's won on TV and the tour, Webster and Cullen have had great years on tour and Webster also had a solid worlds, while the other Lewis and Dimitri crashed the worlds and made huge breakthroughs that I think warrant entry into this. I just hope Adie plays enough that he can match up frequently with these, but being out of the top 16 basically forces him to. Once we're under way I'll make a spreadsheet and put up a link in the links bar rather than post updates in here.
I hope to get some brief BDO analysis up later in the week, I also intend to shove the Premier League players through the master computer and project what'll happen in the first nine weeks.
Season is now up and here's the season end FRH rankings - LY indicates the position the player was at in the previous season:
TY | LY | Name | FRH Points |
---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 | Michael van Gerwen | 1.13m |
2 | NR | Rob Cross | 598k |
3 | 3 | Peter Wright | 516k |
4 | 7 | Phil Taylor | 380k |
5 | 18 | Daryl Gurney | 333k |
6 | 2 | Gary Anderson | 285k |
7 | 8 | Mensur Suljovic | 251k |
8 | 16 | Simon Whitlock | 224k |
9 | 5 | Dave Chisnall | 202k |
10 | 14 | Michael Smith | 194k |
11 | 9 | Raymond van Barneveld | 188k |
12 | 19 | Gerwyn Price | 179k |
13 | 17 | Alan Norris | 171k |
14 | 13 | Ian White | 166k |
15 | 4 | James Wade | 166k |
16 | 27 | Darren Webster | 161k |
17 | 11 | Benito van de Pas | 157k |
18 | 12 | Kim Huybrechts | 155k |
19 | 10 | Jelle Klaasen | 146k |
20 | 23 | Joe Cullen | 144k |
21 | 21 | Stephen Bunting | 127k |
22 | 6 | Adrian Lewis | 126k |
23 | 22 | Mervyn King | 123k |
24 | 30 | Kyle Anderson | 122k |
25 | 26 | Steve Beaton | 121k |
26 | 34 | Jamie Lewis | 118k |
27 | 39 | John Henderson | 118k |
28 | 50 | Jonny Clayton | 115k |
29 | 28 | Justin Pipe | 108k |
30 | 33 | Cristo Reyes | 106k |
31 | 15 | Robert Thornton | 104k |
32 | 37 | Steve West | 103k |
33 | 31 | James Wilson | 94.4k |
34 | 29 | Vincent van der Voort | 89.5k |
35 | 48 | Dimitri van den Bergh | 82.6k |
36 | 40 | Christian Kist | 78.8k |
37 | 35 | Chris Dobey | 71.7k |
38 | 44 | Jermaine Wattimena | 71.6k |
39 | 24 | Mark Webster | 70.8k |
40 | 25 | Brendan Dolan | 65.9k |
41 | 60 | James Richardson | 65.1k |
42 | 47 | Ronny Huybrechts | 64.9k |
43 | 57 | Jan Dekker | 63.4k |
44 | NR | Richard North | 55.5k |
45 | 53 | Keegan Brown | 55.4k |
46 | 36 | Robbie Green | 51.5k |
47 | 78 | Zoran Lerchbacher | 50.5k |
48 | 46 | Kevin Painter | 48.6k |
49 | NR | Steve Lennon | 45.2k |
50 | NR | Antonio Alcinas | 41.0k |
51 | 85 | Willie O'Connor | 40.7k |
52 | 32 | Jamie Caven | 40.6k |
53 | NR | Peter Jacques | 39.3k |
54 | 20 | Terry Jenkins | 38.8k |
55 | 55 | Ron Meulenkamp | 38.5k |
56 | NR | Martin Schindler | 38.1k |
57 | 51 | Devon Petersen | 37.9k |
58 | 38 | Max Hopp | 35.4k |
59 | NR | Krzysztof Ratajski | 35.1k |
60 | 42 | Joe Murnan | 30.9k |
61 | 54 | Jeffrey de Graaf | 30.8k |
62 | 45 | Josh Payne | 29.9k |
63 | 41 | Andrew Gilding | 28.0k |
64 | NR | Ted Evetts | 27.7k |
65 | 43 | Rowby John Rodriguez | 26.0k |
66 | 52 | Mick McGowan | 25.5k |
67 | 65 | John Michael | 25.0k |
68 | 82 | Nathan Aspinall | 24.9k |
69 | 68 | Jeffrey de Zwaan | 23.6k |
70 | 49 | Ricky Evans | 22.5k |
71 | NR | Glen Durrant | 22.5k |
72 | 69 | Kim Viljanen | 22.1k |
73 | 72 | Berry van Peer | 21.5k |
74 | NR | Ryan Searle | 21.5k |
75 | 91 | Darren Johnson | 21.0k |
76 | 61 | Andy Boulton | 20.9k |
77 | 96 | Mike de Decker | 20.7k |
78 | 71 | Michael Mansell | 20.5k |
79 | NR | Pete Hudson | 19.5k |
80 | 62 | Dirk van Duijvenbode | 19.5k |
81 | NR | Chris Quantock | 19.3k |
82 | NR | Kevin Munch | 18.9k |
83 | NR | Paul Lim | 18.5k |
84 | NR | Robert Owen | 18.3k |
85 | NR | Paul Nicholson | 17.3k |
86 | 63 | Andy Jenkins | 17.1k |
87 | NR | Jimmy Hendriks | 16.8k |
88 | 58 | Dave Pallett | 16.5k |
89 | 66 | Simon Stevenson | 15.9k |
90 | NR | Diogo Portela | 15.7k |
91 | NR | Steve Hine | 15.7k |
92 | NR | Kirk Shepherd | 15.2k |
93 | NR | Jamie Bain | 15.1k |
94 | NR | Jeff Smith | 15.0k |
95 | 56 | Andy Hamilton | 14.6k |
96 | NR | Richard Corner | 14.1k |
97 | NR | Marko Kantele | 13.5k |
98 | 70 | Mark Walsh | 13.2k |
99 | 95 | Matt Clark | 13.2k |
100 | 93 | Yordi Meeuwisse | 13.2k |
In total, that's a churn of 24 players, the highest ranked player form last year not to reappear being last season's number 59 Mark Frost (although he wasn't far off). Obviously Rob Cross is the highest new entrant, but three other players managed to crack the top 50 from outside last year.
So what for the FRH Second Division Darts for this season? I'm going to score it a little differently this year - rather than just taking the first result between players, I'm going to add up all the legs won and work out the percentage each wins against the other. If you're 75% or over, that's the full two points, 25% or under, zilch, and progressing linearly between the two. Who will we invite?
Four highest active players not playing in the Premier League - Dave Chisnall, Alan Norris, Ian White, James Wade
FRH Wildcards - Kyle Anderson, Adrian Lewis, Joe Cullen, Darren Webster, Jamie Lewis, Dimitri van den Bergh
That seems like a good selection. I was tempted to say that if Durrant went deep at Lakeside, switched and won his tour card that I'd invite him straight in, but that's a big combination of if's. For those that are high up that missed out, van de Pas, Huybrechts and Klaasen have done little all year and all crashed out of the worlds at the first hurdle, Bunting's getting back there but hasn't shown quite enough yet. Lewis at least showed the quality in the Matchplay and is probably the biggest name not in the Premier League proper, Anderson's won on TV and the tour, Webster and Cullen have had great years on tour and Webster also had a solid worlds, while the other Lewis and Dimitri crashed the worlds and made huge breakthroughs that I think warrant entry into this. I just hope Adie plays enough that he can match up frequently with these, but being out of the top 16 basically forces him to. Once we're under way I'll make a spreadsheet and put up a link in the links bar rather than post updates in here.
I hope to get some brief BDO analysis up later in the week, I also intend to shove the Premier League players through the master computer and project what'll happen in the first nine weeks.
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