Tuesday 20 December 2022

jfc jamie what was that

OK, back to square one on the betting. Wednesday afternoon:

- Kind of think I should be betting O'Shea given the data, but Darius just seems like someone who will pull his shit together and overcome the projections. I'm going against all principles here and not just trusting the numbers, but it's just a belief, or lack of, in the ability of John to get the job done. Prove me wrong.
- Not touching that Kleermaker game with a barge pole.
- Rock line vs Rydz doesn't seem too far off to be honest. Josh is clearly elite, but Callan's no mug and may squeeze this one out slightly more than one time in four, as such I don't want to be jumping on a 2/5 line.
- Chizzy against Gilding is the same line. This is all about how much you trust form against larger data. Rodney's been playing his best stuff of late. Andrew hasn't. Season long gives Gilding a 40% shot, if you believe that, then 5/2 looks like a great play. If I filter it down to post-August, then it gives Gilding a 17% shot, in which case you're setting money on fire. That is over a significant enough sample size. I'm fine with not touching the game, it all comes down as to how you, the reader, want to weigh up the data.

Will post Wednesday evening up either at lunchtime, or just before the session.

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