Thursday 19 May 2022

Stuttgart round one thoughts

Incredibly frustrating that we've got different big players withdrawing, and because the PDC decided to hold all the host nation qualifiers in advance, we've got no replacement. Despite them holding a playoff at the actual qualifier for this exact eventuality. The mind boggles. Still, that means that Schindler gets the dubious privilege of getting promoted to the #16 seed, and Eddie Lovely gets a first round bye and a winnable second round game against Daryl Gurney. I can't see any lines yet, so will just post up some thoughts for now - if there's lines up later tonight I'll probably post tips later tonight, otherwise it'll be in the morning.

Gilding/Michael - Should be a very easy Gilding this one. Michael's had some flashes, as he always does, but he's nearly ten points behind Andrew on scoring. Whatever price this comes up at, it won't be short enough, 1/8 looks fair!

Razma/Zonneveld - Madars has looked decent so far in 2022, while we've not heard a great deal from Niels since he regained his card. Niels is however scoring more than Madars is, he's a little bit more inconsistent but 8/11 looks about right to me. Would imagine Razma enters as favourite, so could be an opportunity here.

Gawlas/Joyce - Entertaining one this, Adam off of the back of a good run while Joyce is still in that top 32 fringes zone, but a bit off major qualification which he really needs to threaten those spots. Joyce looks the solidly better player in 2022 with deceptively good stats given his quiet set of results, good few points better than Gawlas and ought to be around 4/9.

Szaganski/Mansell - Hard to know what to make of Radek, not seen a whole lot of him play, especially in comparison to Mickey, who's come onto our radar a bit over the last couple of weeks with some decent results. There's only a couple of points between them in the scoring and consistency looks similar, so a projection of about Mansell 4/6 seems about right.

Bellmont/Lukeman - Data's a little bit limited on Stefan, only 31 legs played with scoring of 87 in them, which puts him a fair bit behind Lukeman. Don't think this is a formality for Martin, but I would imagine a line of around 1/3 is in the right ballpark.

Meikle/Meulenkamp - The RM derby! Ryan has played competently and is outscoring Ron well enough that he comes in here as a favourite between two players who are looking to add a bit of a buffer between themselves and the cutoff in the tour card race. This projects at 8/11 in favour of Ryan, but Ron is playing some fairly inconsistent stuff so a fair line might actually be a few ticks shorter.

Murnan/Wenig - We've seen a fair bit of Wenig over the last couple of years without really seeing him set the house on fire, while Joe has had some good runs but maybe not so much over the past twelve months which has seen him slide a little bit. Joe's got about three points a turn on Lukas who we have just about enough data on to make me think Murnan ought to be 8/15 when lines show up.

Klaasen/Rydz - This ought to be played at a nice pace and could result in a fair few maxes, we've got a good 70 or so legs on Jelle who has scored near to 89 in multiple events across several organisations and formats, but that's a good 3+ points below Callan, not the easiest draw for either but Callan ought to be around 1/2. Might be shorter in real life, maybe lack of sample is overrating Klaasen a touch.

Williams/Rodriguez - Two players here who have made a good start to 2022, making the Matchplay might be a little bit out of reach, but the Grand Prix is certainly on the horizon for both, Jim being the last player out and Rowby within 10k of the cutoff as things stand. Both are scoring well, winning legs are basically identical which gives an evens projection, but we need to consider consistency in this one, Rowby's score is at 3.95 which isn't bad, especially for him, but Jim's is practically zero, so that coinflip projection needs taking with a huge pinch of salt.

Huybrechts/Bunting - Another great matchup here which a few years back could easily have been a major quarter final, Kim continuing a resurgence and scoring over 90 a turn, but that's not enough to keep pace with Bunting, who's just that little bit better which ought to translate to around an 8/11 advantage for the former Lakeside champion.

Kleermaker/Jansen - Interesting Dutch derby here between someone who I've tipped to win a Pro Tour soon but hasn't, and someone who I didn't, but has. Scoring isn't too dissimilar, Jansen has the higher scoring but is a bit more inconsistent, they're scoring about the same on losing legs but Danny is a couple of points higher on winning legs, causing the master computer to spit out a line of 4/6 which might be a little too short in reality.

Rafferty/Horvat - Nathan ought to be OK in this one. Steady scoring in the 88 region ought to be enough for Dragutin, who we know can produce some moments of magic, but we've not seen it any time recently, probably the last time being that Superleague final he lost. Probably gets priced up at around 2/5 in favour of Rafferty, I doubt I end up taking a position on this game.

Woodhouse/Lewis - Seems like Luke is getting quite a few tough draws of late, this time up against Adie - and then Clayton if he wins this one. Adie is playing well, scoring well into the 91 range, but Luke is only a couple of points off and this actually projects at 4/5 Lewis, such is the parity between the players. That said, Woodhouse is a touch more inconsistent, so while I imagine the line will be shorter than that on Adie, I doubt this would be an auto play.

Clemens/Engstrom - Gabriel could do with a win here as he's been a little bit on the quiet side, and getting the Nordic qualifier isn't a bad draw in the slightest. We've only got one match worth of data on Johan this season, which is from Austria where he got four legs off Ricky Evans averaging around 90, but Gabriel should be too tough. Hard to project a line. 1/3, maybe 2/7 Clemens?

Sedlacek/Noppert - Final game is a corker, we've gone on about Sedlacek for quite some time now and he's only gone and drawn the newest major champion who with a bit of a run here could get up towards the top 16 on the Pro Tour rankings and avoid having to play the qualifiers and the first round, which'd be a big boost. Karel is good but Danny is just better, call it 4/7 in favour of Noppie?

Bets when I can post them.

No comments:

Post a Comment