Sunday 8 May 2022

Some rebuilding done. Quarters?

Firstly, some interesting matchups in the Welsh Open/Classic weekend, Luke Littler vs Wes Newton is a classic battle of the ages in the Open, although with Wes only being 44 that may be a bit harsh. Has been around forever so I think you get what I'm saying. Classic features Graham Hall (I assume it's the same one who had a nice UK Open run as a qualifier) against someone I don't know. Ladies open features Sherrock vs Greaves which could be interesting. But for Leverkusen, we've got quarter finals coming up in less than an hour, Ryan Searle clawed us some cash back despite Chisnall not missing treble 20 at all for three legs, thankfully remembering how to do so in the decider, MvG was a missed spot and he's now got to be pretty short for the whole thing, let's see:

Aspinall/Humphries - Priced up rather tight with Luke having the slight edge. I think this is a play, Luke is right up there with the best players in the world right now, and I'm projecting at near two in three win shots. Nathan's a bit more consistent, so maybe bring that down a point or two, but with the price offered on Coralbrokes, we can't go wrong, 0.25u Humphries 17/20, probably good up to 8/11.

van Duijvenbode/van Gerwen - Michael dropped off a bit from the first game, but it was always going to be hard to maintain that level, and he comes in as a bit shorter than a two in three favourite against Dirk, who put in a signature performance of his own. Reads as 65/45 to me. 11/5 on Dirk isn't quite long enough, but van Gerwen isn't backable at that short of a price.

Rock/van den Bergh - Opportunity for Josh, who made easy work of Williams, to make a real statement and completely ruin his value, he'll play Dimitri who put what now seems a routine 105 average in against Schindler. Maybe the crowd remains against him? Model prefers Rock nearly 60/40, maybe draw it back a few points through consistency, and he's available at odds against. We'll take that, 0.25u Rock 7/5 on Unibet and Betfred, probably alright to go up to maybe 5/4.

Wade/Searle - This is not a tricky one to call. Ryan has been playing significantly better in more or less all aspects of the game and should be a favourite, I see 60/40. He isn't, he's odds against in multiple places. 0.25u Searle 11/10

Doubt I post before the semis.

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