Saturday 7 May 2022

ET5 round 2 afternoon

Will put up the evening in a separate post as time is of the essence

Ratajski/Rock - Has all value now gone? Rock is only 13/10, then again Ratajski has been quiet but still doing OK statistically. Ratajski's got the higher scoring overall but Rock projects to win, mainly due to a sizable consistency difference. Will pass it, but could be proven wrong.

de Sousa/Nilsson - Dennis played well yesterday, Jose hasn't looked his best for some time. Is it worth a flier? 9/2 is tempting but I will say no.

van Duijvenbode/Kuivenhoven - Christ, Maik tried his best to fuck that one up, but got home for us, he's nearly 3/1 which I'm going to take a small shot at, 0.1u Kuivenhoven 14/5, there is a big consistency problem which means that the 40% I'm seeing isn't a true figure, but I think it's still just about enough value. Dirk probably just says no and averages 105 having said that.

Dolan/Gilding - 60/40 in favour of Brendan you say? Flip I say. They're right next to each other on the scoring, Gilding hitting significantly more legs in four visits, Dolan a bit more in five. 0.25u Gilding 6/4

Searle/Kciuk - Bit messy from Krzysztof yesterday but it was enough to get by, going to have to tighten that up against Ryan, who's a big favourite and rightly so. 1/4 is almost value actually.

van den Bergh/Menzies - Cameron hit some nice big outs as White's struggles to get results continue, Dimitri's been a bit quiet and could be there for the taking, it's a pretty big favourites price which I think should be nearer 2/1 Menzies rather than the 0.1u Menzies 16/5 we can get on Coral/Ladbrokes. Got to take it there though, anything shorter than about 11/4 ceases to be value.

Wade/van Peer - Think I'm going to keep tipping Berry until he really lets us down, doubling was a bit sloppy from both yesterday and he's going to have to be on his game to beat Wade in current form, but once again Ladbrokes are overestimating the favourites. 0.1u van Peer 19/4, I'm seeing over one in three chances, which isn't affected by consistency as you might think - Wade actually has the worse score in 2022.

Cullen/Petersen - Damn, Doets let us down after getting the initial break back and then getting the break needed to throw for the match. Cullen I don't think is as much of a step up as people think and I'm seeing Devon as around a 35% chance, so I think once again Ladbrokes are offering up too good a price to decline, 0.1u Petersen 16/5

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