Saturday 28 May 2022

Zwolle day 2 bets

Two out of three yesterday, the main Meikle play came home which made the other two a freeroll, split those one each to break even on them. Marginal stuff we looked at but didn't fire on didn't work out, but hey, we showed restraint so it didn't cost us. Going to be rapid fire again, I will try to be a bit more in depth on round three after the Champions League final.

Ratajski/Gilding: 0.1u Gilding 13/8, I really want to go a quarter of a unit here as the edge is there for it, but the consistency makes a big difference, Gilding's is moderately high and Ratajski's is pretty low. This was kind of in play in the Meikle game as well, but I didn't notice until afterwards, whoops.
Searle/Smith: no bet.
Heta/Waites: no bet, but it's kind of close to a play on Damon.
van den Bergh/Krcmar: 0.1u Krcmar 11/4, it's a long shot underdog so only going small, but Boris is playing well enough that he projects to win around 40% of the time, compared to under 30% which these odds represent. Wouldn't hate a quarter unit play.
Aspinall/Larsson: no bet, feels like it's a bit too favoured towards Nathan but with limited data on Daniel I'm not going to say 5/1 is great or anything. Average yesterday was only 88 after all.
Dolan/Rydz: no bet.
Schindler/Noppert: this is kind of similar to the Gilding situation, except here Noppert has an extra few percent, plus the home field advantage, so I don't think I can fire on Schindler despite projecting a bit better than the 13/8 that's available suggests.
de Sousa/Chisnall: no bet.
Cross/Meikle: no bet, but it's close on Meikle again. It should be a bit tighter, would be more confident if we've seen Ryan get a couple of good back to back games more often, which is what he will need.
Cullen/Whitlock: no bet.
van Duijvenbode/Mansell: no bet.
Wright/Wattimena: no bet.
van Gerwen/Klaasen: no bet.
Price/King: no bet.
Smith/Jansen: no bet.
Dobey/Edhouse: 0.1u Edhouse 9/5, that's on Unibet, 7/4 also generally good, Edhouse has been playing deceptively well and, while there's a little bit of a consistency issue, does project at nearer to 45% than 40%, so with these odds representing 35% chances coupled with Dobey seemingly lacking a few results of late, I think it's worth a stab. Would have been nice if Edhouse got an actual win rather than a bye for "momentum" (did Jim miss his flight?), but we'll just go with this.

Round three when available.

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