Thursday, 5 May 2022

ET5 - quick first round hits

Going to barrel through all of these extremely quickly:

Mansell/Woodhouse - Tough to call, Mansell seems slightly in form, Luke not so much, small edge is there, 0.1u Mansell 11/10

Penhall/Peters - Darren making some moves after doing nothing with his card, Luc's been quiet after getting his, market says flip, don't disagree

Sedlacek/not Baggish - Thought they'd solved this bye issue?

Nilsson/Lukeman - Martin in red hot form, Dennis likely can't compete, odds reflect it fine

Rock/Scutt - Spicy as hell, Rock amazing, Scott started well in PDC but quiet since, wild variety of prices so will take 0.25u Rock 8/15 on 365, Ladbrokes have the line right at 4/11

Gawlas/Williams - Adam up and down, Scott just getting work done, bookies have it close, I think Scott's maybe 55/45, so will take 0.25u Williams 23/20 on Laddies

Kcuik/Barry - Kcuik pretty dangerous, Keane more so, generally Barry more than two in three seems weighted too much, but it's actually right

Gilding/Wenig - Andrew hugely underrated, Lukas possibly the opposite, albeit slightly, not being able to get more than 2/5 on Gilding appears reasonable

Petersen/Doets - Devon not been good for a while, Kevin been consistently better for a while, looks 60/40, market disagrees, 0.25u Doets evs

Bunting/Kuivenhoven - Stephen with good run last weekend, Maik not been playing bad but with a quiet start to 2022, Maik inconsistent but this feels closer than the line so small flier despite liking Bunting's work this year, 0.1u Kuivenhoven 9/4

Gurney/Burness - Irish derby time, Daryl's regaining form, Kevin somewhat of the same, data says Burness might be a bit closer but that seems like a sample size thing, but wouldn't rush to lump on Daryl at the prices offered

van Peer/Wattimena - Berry maybe playing the best he's done in a long time, Jermaine not playing overly badly, better than his nadir but not at his pushing the top 16 peak, seems flippy with Jermaine having a small edge so nothing doing here

Menzies/White - Cameron showing some flashes in 2022, Ian coming back after a shocker last time out, books feeling around 60/40 which appears pretty much bang on

Schindler/Edhouse - Martin still in our darting circle of trust but value declining, Ritchie either very good and can compete at this level but lots of bad legs, general not quite 2/1 line on Edhouse is not tempting enough

Rodriguez/Kurz - Rowby having a very good run of form, Nico been a bit out of action and not really sure where he's at, 4/7 isn't quite enough on the Austrian to put away name value considerations

Chisnall/Clemens - Best saved for last, this would be a great last sixteen matchup, lines look accurate.

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