Saturday 21 May 2022

Stuttgart day 2

Will take yesterday, would have been better if Zonneveld could have served it out obviously, but picking up both Gilding and Rafferty at a price that rapidly shortened in both cases is a decent enough return. Sixteen games today so let's get straight to it:

Heta/Mansell - Should be a good test for Mickey this after a comfortable win against Szaganski where he wasn't really tested but still played decent enough, market thinks Heta more than 75%, that seems fair enough, I've got this as bang on 80/20.

van den Bergh/Murnan - Joe whitewashed Lukas Wenig, didn't need to do a whole lot to do so but hit quite a few maxes and was good on the doubles so won't be trivial for Dimitri, although the market's got this one at round about the same price as the first game. This seems a little bit closer than that one though, Joe's got slightly over 25%, but not as much as 30% so no real value here either.

Searle/Gawlas - Good job from Adam in round one, ton average to defeat one tricky Ryan, and now he gets another, and the market's giving him ever so slightly better chances than the first two games, floating at about 30%. I'm not sure why though, Searle is an incredibly tough opponent and I've got this one 75/25. Again, another spot where there's not the edge to recommend a play.

Gurney/Lovely - Eddie got the bye, Daryl is somehow still seeded, Lovely was hitting some good stuff about a year ago but seems a touch quieter now, although still playing well enough that I'm rating him at about a one in three shot, this against Gurney who's continuing to get back to where he was. 3/1 is kind of half tempting, but without the first round game to really look at, I'm not sure I can recommend a play. It's very close though, 100/30 I'd probably grab.

de Sousa/Gilding - Good landing spot for Andrew this, who one duff leg from both aside had zero trouble against John Michael as expected, Jose had a decent run last time out but still seems a touch on the quiet side, both players' form being recognised with Andrew not even a 2/1 dog. Do think we can go with this, Andrew's actually scoring better than Jose in 2022, so we'll take Hills offering, 0.25u Gilding 7/4, they're the only ones at that price but this is still good down to 6/4, maybe ever so slightly shorter.

Ratajski/Huybrechts - Kim came through a decider with Bunting where he avoided a match dart, little bit of a scrappy game on the scoring, but he's got Ratajski which is a fair bit of a step up in class over Stephen, although many may not necessarily see it that way. Line of 4/7 on Krzysztof that I'm seeing in most places looks spot on, so nothing more to see here.

Dolan/Jansen - Danny only lost the one leg in an easy enough win against Kleermaker, who missed quite a few shots at double, Danny might need to pick his game up against Brendan who should be a bit of a tougher test, although the market is rating Danny in the high thirties in terms of win percentage, so it is recognising he can play. I see it 65/35, so no real edge either way, maybe Dolan being slightly undervalued but nothing to write home about.

Cross/Klaasen - Jelle caused a bit of an upset by eliminating Callan Rydz in round one, just throwing in consistent two treble visits and generally generating more chances than his opponent. Rob will be a tougher test still, and the market's got a bit of vig but is basically saying 25% Jelle. That feels about right, on the limited data I have maybe Jelle's a tick or so better than that, but can't really recommend anything.

Cullen/Rodriguez - Into the evening session we go and we've got the most recent Premier League night winner up against Rowby, who against Williams saw good scoring, scrappy doubling, and then a four visit break in the decider. Timing's everything. Rowby's playing well and has chances, I'm looking at 60/40 Cullen from where I'm standing which makes 7/4 on Rowby not quite enough, I think anything north of 2/1 I'd take.

Humphries/Meikle - This could be spicy if Ryan steps up, he didn't need to really get out of second gear to beat a faltering Ron Meulenkamp, but he'll need to do so here, that said his top game can give the multiple time Euro Tour winner (we can say that now) problems. Looks like Luke should take this more than 70% but not quite 75% of the time, such is the standard he's playing at right now, Meikle is 7/2 which is getting close to thinking about taking a flier, but it's so hard to bet against Humphries at this moment in time without a really good reason to do so.

Clayton/Lewis - Adie needed to come from behind to defeat Luke Woodhouse, 91 average not really that impressive but any time you go from 5-2 down to a 6-5 win, you've got to draw some positives. Market really isn't rating Lewis in this one, rare that you'd be able to get him at 3/1, I think he's got enough of a chance that it's worth the shot, 0.1u Lewis 3/1, I'm thinking 35% so there is a bit more of an edge compared to other long shots that we've been tempted with.

van Gerwen/Lukeman - Martin was made to work against Stefan Bellmont, but got over the line 6-3 in the end after a bit of a scrappy beginning to the match, and here's a good match to really test where his game is at. 9/2 is what we can get, and this seems incredibly close to a play. I'd have put the fair line at 100/30, if Lukeman had been a little bit more clinical yesterday then maybe I fire the shot, but I'll keep my money in my pocket here, although it is notable to see that MvG is getting back to the stage where he might be a little bit too short in lots of games. One to keep an eye on.

Schindler/Razma - Madars was made to fight against Zonneveld in a weird game where both players hit ten darters ending on unexpected doubles, he lost the averaged by quite some way and will need to tighten up against Schindler who was promoted into the seeds for this event. Market's thinking 2-1 in favour of Martin, that looks fine, maybe Madars has a couple percent more chance than that, but no lines are significantly off what I'm seeing.

Wright/Engstrom - Johan got a pretty big upset in seeing off Clemens, now faces Wright, no real analysis needed here, I lack the data on Johan to make a fair assessment but Peter at 1/12 is of no interest, and 8/1 on Engstrom I guess seems fair.

Smith/Noppert - Real tough draw for both, Noppert being unseeded is a bit of an anomaly and Smith's back to winning tournaments, this UK Open rematch rates to me as being in favour of Michael, just a bit over 55/45, market is saying 4/5 Smith and the inverse for Noppie, so yeah, let's just get to the last game.

van Duijvenbode/Rafferty - DvD's the last man up and will play Nathan who didn't average or finish that great against Horvat, but generated enough chances to get the job done. This is a huge step up in quality and I'd expect a fair line to be about 11/4 - we can get 7/2, which isn't quite enough to get excited about given Nathan was a bit lacklustre yesterday.

So just the two plays, plenty of longer shots that seem close to plays, if you like one of the likes of Lovely, Rowby, Meikle, Lukeman or Rafferty a bit more than I am, then take the shot.

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