Prague day 1 evening tips

Going to blast through these, ignoring the Chizzy game because some books having him as short at 1/40 is lol, and also the Gawlas game as I simply don't have data on his opponent:

Hempel/Smith - Both seem a bit out of form, but Florian more so, and Ross has shown signs of turning back up of late. Projecting at just over 70% so 0.25u Smith 4/6

Kleermaker/Bialecki - Seems an incredibly close game, I can barely separate them, maybe Bialecki is a slight dog. Market tends to agree with that assessment.

Henderson/Aspinall - Market's correctly picking Hendo as a big dog in this one, appears a similar sort of margin as the Hempel game. As such, it's moderately close to a Henderson bet, but nobody's quite offering long enough odds, I'd start thinking about it at 9/2, and Ladbrokes, who've shown a tendency to price underdogs a bit long, aren't even at 4/1, and others are shorter.

Evetts/Lewis - Looks like a pretty boring spot on line with Lewis not quite at 1/3, nothing much to say here.

Clemens/Sedlacek - Actually seeing Karel as a small favourite in this one, 55/45, he's priced as a tiny underdog, I'll go small with 0.1u Sedlacek 6/5, I'm not sure how sustainable his form is, but Clemens lost to Edgar midweek so there is that, plus Karel is at home.

VVDV/Nentjes - This is also priced up surprisingly closely, basically the same as the previous game. I've got it slightly tighter, Nentjes with the tiny edge, he is off the back of a tournament win as well, but there's not quite enough to justify taking 13/10.

Back later this evening for round two.