Sunday 15 May 2022

Prague day 3

Apologies for yesterday's post being very short and to the point, but I was extremely short on time, and I literally found no plays - it wasn't a case of not looking for them, I did go through every match and couldn't find a single play that I could recommend. We've had a fair few big names drop out - Clayton is maybe the biggest shock of the European Tour so far this season, while Price also going out (naturally there were afters, if you're going to bet on afters in any game, Price against Lewis would usually be a fair shout) has opened up the door for whoever comes through the van Gerwen/Humphries quarter (ironic that the two players left in the event who are scoring the most this season are in the same quarter) to be a strong favourite to take the title, while there's big opportunities for lots of people to go deep. Let's roll:

Rodriguez/van Duijvenbode - Rowby's been in form, and was able to withstand a big fish from Smith to get home and eliminate the Premier League player on a 14+ game winning streak, while Dirk looked strong, especially on finishing, to take out the home favourite in Sedlacek. I'm seeing Rowby with more or less right in between a 40% chance and a one in three shot, so a best line of 2/1 really isn't enticing either way.

de Sousa/Justicia - The Jose derby is under way, Justicia was able to have the game of his life to take out Clayton (who, let's be said, wasn't playing bad, Jose just played well enough to get over the line), while de Sousa looked a bit better than he has of late with a steady 6-2 victory over Kleermaker. Justicia is definitely live in this one, anyone who can beat a Clayton who is playing well should be, I'm seeing nearly a one in three shot, so still a tough ask - the best we can get is the usual Ladbrokes underrating the underdogs compared to other books, but even then 12/5 isn't enticing.

van den Bergh/Humphries - Think this has to be the match of the round, and I don't think it's overly close - Dimitri had a real tough draw in Aspinall in round two, but was able to get the odd break to leave Nathan hoping his home town football team gets the point they need later today to get back in the league (no idea if he actually follows County or not but will give them props), Luke only dropped the one leg against the dangerous Lukeman, could maybe have been a bit closer if Martin hasn't missed the odd dart but he was already three down before he got a shot so always on the back foot. Dimitri's chances look the same as Rowby's to me, but disturbingly the bookies can't separate them. 0.25u Humphries 10/11.

van Gerwen/Mansell - Michael let the foot off the gas a bit against one of the Czech qualifiers to blow my -4.5 punt with MvG being 5-0 up, while Mansell got through a slugfest with Dolan, surviving a match dart to get through. This one shouldn't be close, 5/1 on Mickey looks the correct line, so MvG is really too short to put into an acca or anything.

Cross/Evans - Rob had no issues dealing with van Dongen, while Evans surprisingly had no issues with Ratajski, whitewashing the Pole and only allowing him darts at double in one leg. Oh my. Rob continues to be underrated and projects as a solid favourite and a 1/3 line would be fair. We can actually get 4/9, not quite enough for me to pull the wallet out, but looks to be the best value of the favourites so far if you want to have some additional higher variance plays.

Smith/Chisnall - Ross continues to get some better results after a fairly poor opening to the year, 6-4 over Cullen isn't a bad result, Dave edged out Gurney in a decider in what looks like the match of the round and maybe of the Euro Tour so far just looking at the numbers with both players sustaining 102 and 103 averages across all eleven legs. Appears a fairly tight one on projections, I'm giving Chizzy the 55/45 edge, he comes in as a slightly shorter favourite than that, but with the vig there isn't a play on Smith. If we could get the 7/4 to go with the 4/7 that Dave is priced at in multiple books, I'd probably take the shot on Ross, maybe it is out there but I just can't see it because oddschecker are being lazy again. Maybe I try the exchanges.

Gawlas/Searle - Adam's the last Czech left standing having got the big scalp of Damon Heta in what looked like a bit of a slower scoring than usual and then missed doubles fest just looking at the numbers, Ryan meanwhile was last on yesterday and whitewashed Ritchie Edhouse. Seems like this should be a match too far for Adam, I'd price him at 7/2 ignoring any crowd factors, he's actually a little shorter than that in some places so being able to get 3/10 on Searle at 365 isn't a losing play - just one  where I don't have the confidence margin to place a bet. If anyone's going any longer than 1/3, then definitely consider the shot.

Lewis/van der Voort - Final game, should be a solid one played at a watchable pace. Adie took out Price in what I assume was a bit of a tetchy game, Vincent meanwhile nicked a decider against Schindler, really slamming home the ton-forties and making very few errors on doubles, only real costly error being in the first leg. Adie projects pretty solidly in this one - approaching a two in three favourite, I think there's enough here that I can go 0.25u Lewis 8/11, he's a confidence player and what can give him more confidence than eliminating the number one seed. Real chance for Adie to go deep in this one.

So just the two plays, the Luke one is the best play, the Lewis one has just about enough to recommend, but I wouldn't take the 4/6 that's on Betfair, Ladbrokes etc, it's that marginal. Maybe just go a tenth of a unit at that price if you're restricted on anywhere that's offering better.

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