Friday 13 May 2022

Prague day 1 afternoon tips

Not going to be much here, they've loaded most of the domestic qualifiers that I know absolutely nothing about into this session with unbackable odds, similarly with one of the associate qualifiers, which only really leaves four games to look at. Still:

0.25u Rodriguez 8/11 v Waites, Scott hasn't been playing to the level that Rowby has since regaining his card, the Austrian seems to pop up quite a lot on the list of players to consider, and the projection gives him, give or take a tenth of a percent, a two out of three chance of winning. 8/11 is easily enough to bet.

0.1u Mansell 5/4, this does seem fairly close, but I've got Mickey as having the edge the other way around. That's enough of a swing to make it a play, it is a little bit of a concern that Mickey got pummelled last time out (although there wasn't much he could do about it) and that Jeffrey looks to have climbed off the complete bottom of his form, but it's still worth the play. I'm toning it down from a quarter unit to a smaller play though.

van Dongen/Claydon seems similarly tight, maybe Jules has a bit more of a shot than the market suggests, but I've only got him ahead of Brett by a couple of percent, and I think there's possibly a bit of a lack of data on both, so will pass 11/8.

Rock/Evans game looks priced accurately enough. Projections maybe give Josh a slightly better chance than the market indicates, but it's not enough to bet and Ricky's playing OK, so I can easily pass that one.

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