Chisnall v Smith/Clayton - Blockbuster section to start, Smith's still, I think it's fair to say, never really built from his world title, has had a quiet season outside of that annoying Matchplay run, but should be cranking the form up as we get to the business end of the season. Clayton's also been quiet, and still isn't playing anywhere near his actual ranking, but has shown better signs in the last two to three months. Chizzy continues to be in great form, nearly adding another Pro Tour this week and looking to make it three out of four Euro Tours, so despite being the only player here without a major, is likely the favourite over either second round opponent at this point in time.
Gurney v Hempel/Eydz - Florian's someone it doesn't feel like we've heard a great deal from this season, but he does have a moderately recent Pro Tour semi final and that's enough to put him provisionally in the worlds right now, a win here would be more than handy as it's by no means a lock. Rydz has been in a lot of these and continues to be up and down, scoring alright (a tad better than Hempel), but not really making any real deep runs, so this should be competitive. Gurney isn't the worst draw either could have got, but at the same time Daryl, still playing in and around that top 32 level, won't mind having got the pick of these either, as he should have some edge here.
Heta v Wright/Cullen - Oh boy, another big section here. Wright is at least showing signs of staying relevant with his recent addition to his Euro Tour tally (although for the love of god please give him next year's Premier League off to concentrate on ranking events), which is more than can be said for Joe, whose numbers are not rallying in the slightest, safely behind Peter (who's only recently just got back above scoring of 90 a turn), he's flashed with a couple of finals this year but those seem the exception and not the rule and is correctly an underdog for this one. Damon should win the second round game, twice winner on the Pro Tour this year and statistically in and around the top ten by any metric, the question for him is more if he can make the deep run in a major that'd shove him into Premier League contention. A first Euro Tour of the year wouldn't hurt though.
Searle v Bezijan/Czoka - Going to struggle with this one. There's plenty of known Hungarian players. Only one of those came through the quali. These two aren't any of them. The quali was back at the start of June, so I'm not sure how much use that's going to be in gauging this game at all. Got to think this is by a country mile the biggest game for either in their careers, and a likely nervy one given it should be winnable for both. Unlike the second round with Searle, quietly having a very solid scoring season but still looking for a breakthrough at this level of play. This'll probably be the easiest he'll ever have it to get to the final day.
Price v Jehirszki/Nijman - Kind of the same problem here, except the qualifier has drawn Nijman, the youngster who is having a very impressive season, his level of play being that of a top 32 talent, and if he's able to punch through at senior level and win a title (having already booked one final this year as well as destroying the Dev Tour), his real ranking should rise to match. It's a shame for him that he's drawn Price, perhaps surprisingly without a title this year despite scoring numbers that are only bettered by old rival Ando and a couple of Lukes. Gerwyn will certainly take nothing for granted, but he will be a favourite - albeit in no way a guaranteed winner.
Dobey v Woodhouse/Williams - Good first round tie this one, Luke is just about doing enough to make the Grand Prix and is statistically round about where his ranking suggests he should be, whereas Scott hasn't really done a huge deal since that worlds run, but is putting up steady numbers, albeit a tad off Luke's level and not really translating into results, being some way off Leicester but at least looking safe for Minehead. Dobey however is playing truly elite level darts, there are only a small handful of players who are doing more statistically than he is, and it is surely a matter of time before he adds a real major to his resume, or a first Euro Tour for that matter. Are there easier draws? Yes. Will Dobey be concerned? Not a huge amount.
Noppert v Ratajski/Aspinall - Weird one. Krzysztof is looking pretty good, steady as ever, and still good enough that he can win titles. Nathan on the other hand withdrew last weekend, claiming he's not ready to return from injury yet and won't be back until he's properly healed, which took until all of Tuesday when he showed up at the Pro Tour. Nathan did nothing on either day so who knows what to think, against a competent operator like Ratajski you think it'll be a hard ask. Noppert is a very efficient second round opponent, who does much of what Ratajski does, but is just a little bit better on all areas, and it is maybe a surprise he only has the one title this year. Should be a hard fought game, but one where Danny has the edge.
van Veen v Beveridge/Barry - Darren's onto the Pro Tour but has yet to really make an impression after being a name that was there or there abouts for some years - he has one board win and that's it, and this is actually the first time he's made it through a qualifier this season. The numbers are pretty steady, so maybe it's been a bit of misfortune here and there. Keane is actually having a bit of a stinker of a season as well - at least at senior level as the Dev Tour is going alright, currently outside of the worlds looking in, scoring worse than Darren is, and off the back of a 6-0 reverse last time he was on stage. Don't think either will give Gian any serious problems, he's not playing quite as well as he has done at points in the past, but still extremely good and a tier above either of these, clearly in the discussion as to who'll be the next to win a first senior title.
Smith v van Barneveld/Edhouse - Real interesting first round game here. Barney showed he's more than good enough to win titles in 2024, because that's exactly what he did, while Ritchie was one dart away from getting to a final just this week, this is one that feels close on paper but one where RvB has the better numbers by a substantial enough clip where he should be favoured, although Edhouse is one of those players who maximises what he can do in terms of getting legs and then results. Smith is perhaps cooling a little bit these past few weeks, he's not in the top ten of pure scoring as I recall he was earlier in the year, but top sixteen is still clearly where he is at, and he's gone close at this level a couple of times this year to breaking through (although, of course, obviously already a major winner), and this isn't the worst section of the draw to start a run, although he will definitely have to work to open his account.
Pietreczko v Bialecki/Zonneveld - Sebastian hasn't really kicked on in 2024, although he's at least looking alright at the secondary level and does have one win on the Euro Tour this year. Niels looks very safe for the worlds despite seemingly having not done an enormous amount of note, seemingly not hitting a quarter so far this year but scoring a very steady 90 per turn which should be enough firepower to handle Bialecki right now. Ricardo has had a few flashes after a bit of a wretched run since he got his Euro Tour title almost twelve months ago, but having run to the final two weeks ago, there are signs he is picking things back up, not just in terms of that result, but the numbers are looking better than they have been, and while Niels is going to be a tough ask, this isn't one that Pietreczko can be written off in by any stretch of the imagination.
Bunting v Vegso/Dekker - The one home nation qualifier we know something about, Janos having made it through a through Eastern Europe qualifiers dating back as far as 2016, and I think he may well have won a game or two, but it's not been for a while as he's a new entrant in the FRH rankings. Cor is making a second appearance of the year having got to Riesa where he looked alright against Jose de Sousa, if he can replicate that level he should be OK to make it into round two, but in Bunting either of them is going to face far, far too strong an opponent, playing at a level where he can realistically win any tournament he enters and straight off a 8-7 final loss to Littler in midweek.
Schindler v Williams/Soutar - Jim continues to be frustrating in that his numbers are great, but he keeps missing enough of the tour that he can't really push on to get into the tricky majors which you feel should be within his grasp. The numbers are a bit down on last year though, and not streets ahead of Soutar, who did become a Pro Tour winner this season which has sparked confidence albeit also not really close to the Grand Prix. Tight game, could go either way, Schindler is a better player than both and is playing like someone with the belief gained from winning a title, but the differential is not enormous and I could legitimately see any of the three advance here.
Humphries v van Duijvenbode/Clemens - Maybe the biggest game of the season for both, with the two standing at 17th and 18th in the Pro Tour rankings for Leicester, albeit there is a bit of a gap to Woodhouse in sixteenth. The numbers are very tight, Dirk is scoring slightly better and with slightly more consistency, but it is real tough to call it. They'd have a great chance against most seeds, but the draw has not been kind to them when they really needed it to be, with Luke looking to up his already stellar levels as he winds up to defend his world title at the end of the year.
van Gerwen v Dolan/Lukeman - Meanwhile, Brendan is in one of the last few Pro Tour spots for Leicester, almost entirely on account of nicking a Pro Tour in May, his numbers are just fine for sure but he does seem to have a bit of a habit for fairly early exits, which is something Martin, whose statistics appear more or less identical to Dolan's, will be hoping to exploit, although in a situation where he's going to need something really special to get into anything he isn't already provisionally qualified for. May be the tightest match of the day this one. MvG returned to the winners circle on Wednesday, this after a surprisingly big gap that only sees him seeded fourteenth for this event, the numbers are still looking fine, albeit there's probably half a dozen players who you can legitimately say are playing better than he is right now - albeit these two aren't really in that conversation and van Gerwen ought to come through to a mouth-watering last sixteen clash this Sunday.
Rock v Wade/Weing - James is still hanging around that 20th spot or there abouts on most metrics, probably playing the best he has done for some time, and the good Matchplay run has certainly helped to stabilise his ranking. Lukas is newly on tour this year after being a name to watch about for for a couple of years, but has flattered to deceive with a fairly poor return and sub-88 a turn scoring seeing him some way off Ally Pally and also a way off being competitive in this opening round tie. Josh has wins at both Pro Tour and European Tour level this year, but the figures are not quite as astronomical as they were at peak Rock hype levels, and while they're better than James' numbers, it is not by anywhere near as much as you would think, so this could be a good competitive second round game, assuming Wenig doesn't play spoiler.
Cross v van den Bergh/Gilding - Final games, and we open with two UK Open winners, Dimitri is having a little bit of a resurgence after getting his, but is still barely in the top 32 in terms of scoring, is not in the top 32 of the Pro Tour rankings, and again has somewhat of a deceptively high actual ranking. Gilding is actually ahead of him on the Pro Tour rankings, but I'm not sure how as his numbers are nearly a couple of points per turn worse than Dimitri's and he presently sits outside of the Leicester places. Still capable of some good numbers (he had one really good game midweek against Nijman if you don't believe me), but just not often enough at this stage. Cross is going to be a tough nut for either of these. Still perenially underrated, he may just have drifted out of the current top ten on form, but a Euro Tour final win over Humphries this year indicates what he is capable of - which is usually going to be enough to win this one.
Will wait for lines for a bit longer and then post up bets.
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