van der Wal/Bialecki - A bit of an odd one in that the card holder is probably the lesser known of the two players, Sebastian's talent had been well known for several years now but the breakthrough onto the main tour we're still waiting for. Jitse won a card at the start of the year, hasn't done a great deal, has an unimpressive record in terms of legs won-lost in the database, and despite 2024 seeming like a quiet year for Bialecki, there's enough to make me think he's easily 60/40 here. 365 have it at 4/5 which I think must be worth considering.
Kantele/Williams - Marko's another one with a quiet 2024 after a really good 2003, finishing a distant fifth on the SDC circuit which he dominated last year, but getting deep enough often enough that we have some data on him, enough to make us think that Scott, who has similarly not really done a great deal this year, should set off as something like an 80/20 favourite, which is a slight bit more favoured than the markets I'm looking at, but not by a huge deal which we can think about betting on.
Tobback/Soutar - Tobback is a name I know very little about. It's not completely unfamiliar, but it is one of the two names that is new to the FRH rankings, so he's certainly not known from the last couple of years, and is not in my database (although IIRC the biggest Belgian WDF event had zero DartConnect etc coverage), so if he's better than an unknown, I don't know about it. The qual showed pretty consistent 85 sorts of averages after the first couple of rounds where you can easily get dragged down by bad players, so maybe there's just enough there that Soutar, who has had a fine last few months, maybe isn't the auto print that I thought he might be at 15 in places.
Woodhouse/Bogaert - Luke we know all about, but we go back to the HNQ well for this one and this is someone I deffo know nothing about. The qual is all we have to work with, and it shows slightly more, he did get up to 87 once, but otherwise it was mostly the same as the previous guy's - nothing that should trouble Luke in the slightest, but enough that 1/7 is not a gimmie given potential weirdness.
Ratajski/Owen - Back to players with cards here, Krzysztof we know all about, Robert's a bit less of a known player but is best known for a great UK Open run a few years back, both had an alright cameo last week, and the projection comes in surprisingly close at 55/45 in favour of the Pole, although we can temper that given Owen has fairly wild inconsistency. Everywhere pricing this at 7/4 doesn't seem unreasonable.
Wattimena/Raman - Now we get to a card versus non-card game, although it feels like it shouldn't be one, Jermaine has been doing decent work for some time, although not really threatening to get back to where he used to be when he was on the verges of the top 16, while Brian was extremely high, if not #1, in the BDO/WDF system (fuck knows what it was at the time) when he got a card, which he didn't really capitalise on. Raman is still clearly a more than competent players and the numbers in the quali show that, but can they rise to the level of that which Jermaine has been playing at for some time? Market had what I thought was a good line at 2/1 Raman, until I did a fact check on Jermaine's numbers and they're a LOT better than I thought they were, so I'll gladly avoid this one.
Clemens/Lukeman - Back to card on card violence between two players on the outside looking in of the Grand Prix, Clemens the last man out as is with Martin about 4k behind, so a big game for both. I'm getting this about 60/40 in favour of the German who is still unbelievably looking for his first PDC title, the market in some places has it tighter but not by enough to start to consider betting.
Gurney/Edhouse - The afternoon session finishes with two players who by contrast are looking really good for Leicester right now. Daryl had a great run last weekend and will be looking to replicate that if he can, but Ritchie is playing well enough that I'm only seeing this at around a 55/45 edge for Gurney. The market is giving Gurney a bigger edge than that, which I guess is understandable in the circumstances, but nobody I can see is offering up a comparable line the other way where we can think about taking Edhouse for value.
Schweyen/Doets - Last of the home nation qualifiers here, Francois is one of the two (Raman being the other) who was already in the FRH rankings, having got to the last two Belgian Darts Opens, losing 6-3 to de Sousa last year and doing a fair bit better in 2022 where he lost 6-4 to Klaasen. The quali showed some bright spots, particularly in the last two rounds, which makes me think that Kevin, while talented, could be tested here given his recent mediocre form. There's enough of a combination of factors here that I'm going for a small yolo stab, 0.1u Schweyen 11/4
Clayton/van Duikvenbode - To the other end of the spectrum we go, between two players who have been struggling for form throughout the year but may be turning things around more recently. I'm finding this one very close, maybe too close to call, Dirk projects ever so slightly better, albeit with a consistency disadvantage, so I'm happy to call this one a coin toss. Best price of 11/10 on DvD is frankly not the slightest bit tempting.
de Decker/Veenstra - Another Belgium/Netherlands game, this one between de Decker, who made the breakthrough at Pro Tour level about a month ago, and Veenstra, who has enough game that he can clearly do the same, even if he's not one of the top 3-5 names I'd list right now. Mike is actually projecting safely over 60% in this one, so while I thought a price of 4/7 was initially a "wait, what" moment, it's not unreasonable in the slightest.
van Barneveld/Kuivenhoven - An all Dutch affair which I want to say we've seen moderately recently, but I can't pick where, there is a clear known player and experience differential, but the actual edge in terms of quality right now is really hard to judge given a huge consistency difference in RvB's favour. Fortunately nobody is offering any sort of line on Maik that I'd even start to think about.
Menzies/Wade - Both players clearly well known at this stage, Cameron being boosted by Edgar tipping him up in a recent video (to be fair Matt was correct on all his players named), let's get staright into the numbers, Menzies projects 60/40, so the game is a very easy pass given the market.
Gilding/van den Bergh - Match up of UK Open winners here, although I would guess one might be slightly better received than the other. Taking into account all the factors and statistics this looks like one where Gilding pulls it out one in three times. Market is slightly more bullish on Andrew, but it's really only fractional.
Dolan/Wright - Thankfully finishing with a bunch of card holder games, Dolan should be safe for Leicester but would like another win or two to make things safe, while Wright did another one of those weekends just to keep those of us writing him off on edge. But it doesn't allow him to catch up to Brendan's numbers - which still give the History Maker a 55/45 edge. Will only go with a small stab on 365 because confidence can be huge, but 0.1u Dolan 2/1
Cullen/Rydz - And we finish with two players who are infuriating to read or project. So we'll keep it short. Projection gives Rydz the edge, but only just. We can't beat 11/10, so not going to touch it.
So just the two plays, but a fair bit there to think about.
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