0.25u Beveridge 13/10 vs Barry, anything less and I might only go 0.1 but 365 give the price. Seeing him between 55-60% dependent on the sample, and the number gets better on form. That's enough for someone odds against like this.
0.25u Bialecki 7/4 vs Zonneveld, again 365, the numbers I've got float from being 55/45 the wrong way to 55/45 the right way - may be getting into a little bit of a sample size issue with Bialecki and he is a little bit more inconsistent, but he's a known competent player against someone who is good but not elite, and 7/4 is a decent number.
0.1u Bezjian evs, this is a pure FDI related punt. I know nothing of these players, or what sample Lendel has, but if he's saying 70/30 I'll trust him for a small stab.
0.1u Clemens 6/5 - Going to have a little stab here despite Dirk seemingly getting back to where he should be at. Longer data is putting things as a flip, which is neither here nor there, but a more form based sample is giving more than 55% for Clemens, nearer 60% even, so I'll take the small shot.
0.25u Clayton 13/8 - Long data says this is evens. Since May we've got Clayton scoring more than Smith and projecting over 60%. We'll snap off that price on Ladbrokes and just hope Smith doesn't do for us yet again.
Close:
Nijman > Jehirszki, 1/8 has got to be close to value surely?
Vegso > Dekker - Shame Janos is so hard to judge. I think Dekker is better but he's not 4/11 better. Probably.
Wenig > Wade - Think giving Lukas only a 25% chance in the market is being slightly unfair, but I'm not a huge believer right now so will give it a pass as things are definitely trending more towards Wade than away from him.
Cullen > Wright - Almost tempted to say that Joe is still doing enough despite strong trend forms, given he's nearly 2/1 in the market. Long data says 50/50, more form based says 40/60, got to think that the actuality is closer to the line again, certainly wouldn't be going with Peter but it's just so, so hard to trust Joe in this one.
van Barneveld > Edhouse - 10/11feels like it's nearly there. Long data says 55/45 which is no edge to talk about, but more form based (using since May for this) puts it closer to 60/40, which is near the point where we'd consider it, Ritchie often doing better than the numbers suggest is enough to just say no.
Nope:
Hempel/Rydz - Find it hard to give either player any edge at all. Nobody's longer than 11/10 either.
Dolan/Lukeman - Again, too close to call, is a little bit more swingy around 50/50 based on sample but not much, and again neither's better than 11/10.
Williams/Soutar - Yet another one where the market is very close and the projections are also too tight to pick a winner. Market slightly favours Jim and I'm slightly favouring Alan but it's not enough to even put in the close category.
Woodhouse/Williams - A similar story, except here I'm getting a few points in favour of Luke, and the market has him narrowly odds on as well. Maybe he could be a tick or two shorter, but there's no real edge here.
Ratajski/Aspinall - Not touching it as I can't believe a single think about how healthy Aspinall actually is. Ratajski may well be the play and the number doesn't look awful but this is very much at your own risk.
van den Bergh/Gilding - Easy one to pass. Market line is pretty much spot on with the bigger sample. The smaller one makes it closer to a coin flip so maybe Gilding should be worth considering, but that doesn't feel intuitively correct.
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