The great escape - round 2 bets

OK, we backdoored a profit in that one, Darren missed some doubles early, got back into it a bit but then kept doing the same and couldn't get it done, Bialecki was breaking for fun but just couldn't hold and then lost a decider, thankfully Clayton and our smaller shots got us out of things for a tiny profit on the day, which given how the last few months have been going, we'll take, it was amusing this evening to get some bonus Joe Cullen content on X but I'll leave that one for you all to investigate if you've not seen it already, will do same sort of format as yesterday given much of the descriptions were already in the bank on the Thursday.

Yep:

0.25u Heta 9/10 v Wright, he's on form yes, but this is looking 65/35 even on the smaller sample size. With a known very, very good player, we can take this one.

Meh:

van Veen > Barry - Line might be slightly underestimating Gian. I've got it at 70%, maybe a couple of points more in more recent samples, so 1/2? Why not?

Dobey > Williams - 4/9 is not the worst line I've seen. I'm thinking nearer to 4/11, but this isn't a three in four shot for Chris.

Clayton > Chisnall - This is close, 6/5 doesn't seem much, but the projections are generally floating closer to evens than I thought they would do when averaged out, and there is a good trend and a solid win this evening. Will probably go with it privately.

Clemens > Humphries - He really, really isn't a general 3/1 dog, he's better than that, but laying Luke appears maybe suicidal.

Lol no:

Pietreczko/Zonneveld - Stats since May are basically in line with the odds. Bring in earlier and it says bet Niels (who played real solid today), but I can find this an easy avoid.

Searle/Bezjian - LOL,

Gurney/Hempel - Market has this really close, although giving Daryl an edge, I'm not sure he even deserves the edge he has, but it's not by a huge amount.

Bunting/Dekker - Can't see Cor being close to competing, but probably has enough that 1/8 is not a complete auto print money.

Schindler/Williams - Current line seems close enough to me, Martin's showing at 65/35 on longer samples, more like 60/40 on more up to date samples, Jim's 6/4, easy move on.

Rock/Wade - We can pass on this one, we think Wade's closer to Rock than you might think, and the line is nicely in concurrence with this.

Noppert/Aspinall - Not touching Nathan out of general principle for the time being.

Price/Nijamn - Seems fair. Full data has Wessel at just shorter than 6/4 as just about perfect. Shorter data has things as closer to a flip, so my lean would be on the Dutchman, but without a huge deal of edge.

Smith/van Barneveld - Two players with a bunch of data. They've got this close enough to right, maybe Ross is ever so slightly underrated, but not so much there's anything worth investigating and that's understandable in an RvB game.

van Gerwen/Lukeman - Michael is just that much better at 1/4. He's probably not 80/20, but Lukeman doesn't have anywhere near the equity to start to consider a yolo shot.

Cross/Gilding - Yeah, Rob being ranked a bit better than a two in three shot seems fine. Maybe there's a trend in Andrew's game that he might be tiny value (saw similar in the first round game), but we won't be investigating it.