Plays:
0.25u Gilding 4/9, we've got enough data on Engstrom from at least the Nordic tour that the projections can be relied upon and it's giving Andrew safely over 80%. It feels like Johan should be a bit better than that, but I can't bring things based on feel that much back when 70% would be break even.
Near misses:
Kciuk > Owen - This is mostly lack of data. We can get 7/4, which is not a terrible price for a somewhat known commodity against someone like Owen. The only problem is we know nothing recently. Even the qualifier for this was three months ago. There he was generally mid to high 80's, creeping into the 90's once, which is getting enough to at least consider it.
Mansell > Ehlers - This is much tougher as Mansell is 1/4, it's lack of data on Ehlers really. What he did in the quali makes me think that he has some qualities, but not enough to hold it together to win six legs against someone as good as Mansell. Again, the quali data is old, it's even further back than the eastern Europe one referred to above.
Beaton > Slevin - We're real close on this one. Just a spot where the best line feels like it's a tick or so short of giving the edge we need on Steve, who I'm seeing as more or less bang on two in three, so 8/13 is nearly enough.
Burton > Krcmar - Kind of the same spot really. I can barely separate the two, I maybe give Stephen the odd percent over 50%. With some places offering 6/5, it might be worth a look.
Woodhouse > Edhouse - Again, very close. I'm getting this as basically 60/40, only problem is that the two of them seem polar opposites in being able to convert performance into legs and match wins, which is just enough to make me not take an otherwise interesting 4/5 line.
de Sousa > Hopp - Better than 1/2 seems kind of tasty. It's a question about Hopp really - peak Hopp should be nowhere near 2/1, but we've not seen peak Hopp since forever, the quali was a mix of B-game and stinkers, and his Challenge Tour record this year is less than inspiring.
Kuivenhoven > Wade - Yes, I know, it sounds insane. But the projection is calling it only 60/40 in favour of Wade, so if it weren't for Maik having extremely wild inconsistency stars, against the exact opponent you do not want to have that issue, then north of 2/1 would otherwise be in play. I'm kind of surprised the line is actually that tight in the first place, but it is, oh well.
Springer > Wright - It's close. The market has Niko just the wrong side of 40%. I have him at just the right side of 40%. You've got countering factors of the game being in Germany, but at the same time them loving Wright, and that this could easily be Niko's biggest win of his career if he gets it, and the pressure that might come when close to the winning line. You weigh the intangibles up.
Whitlock > Rydz - Another one where I'm looking for reasons not to bet. I'm only seeing Callan just north of 50%, so ordinarily 6/4 would be a print money situation. That said, Simon not only has much worse inconsistency numbers than Callan, but as mentioned he's having a stinker of a season in terms of getting results and there is some added pressure on him to get a win here. That's enough for me to say no, but might not be enough for you.
Suljovic > van den Bergh - I'm seeing this as a little bit closer to a 60/40 than the line only giving Suljovic a one in three shot, and we did see this exact result in the most recent Pro Tour. It wouldn't need much market shift for me to say just play it, actually getting 2/1, or just north, would do it for me.
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