Wednesday, 9 October 2024

Grand Prix days 3-4

What a topsy-turvy round one that was. Littler gone, van Gerwen gone (in straight legs no less), Dobey gone, Smith gone, Wright gone, Bunting gone (which should have been Humphries gone, but hey ho). It's been madness, and is likely going to give us one of two things - the most open major we've had in some time, or another routine Humphries win. First we've got to get down to the quarters so eight games to look at.

Humphries/Pietreczko - This one has the potential to be a bit LOL, Luke dodged a huge bullet (see what I did there) after losing five legs to start his match before winning 6/7 to claim a remarkable win, while Ricardo got a good last set against Barney, despite what can only be described as some Grand Prix moments. Should be routine, seeing Luke at over 80%, the market has it even more one sided but there's nothing that makes me feel good about Pietreczko's chances to pull the almighty upset.

Clayton/Smith - Jonny had a good win on paper with a solid average against Edhouse, the 2-0 set score maybe playing closer than it appears, while Ross looked pretty darned good himself (just looking at the numbers) in a one-sided rout of van Veen. Looks like one where Ross should be favoured, let's put it in the 60% to 65% range, the market has it a bit tighter but nowhere outside of real fringe books is offering us close to the numbers that we'd want to see before firing on Ross in this one.

Cross/Schindler - Rob was able to get through a back and forth tie with Littler, putting aside some bad form he's had in this event to get through, while Martin didn't have a great deal to do against Dolan, dropping just the two legs and looking fairly comfortable. Would say this looks about the same as the last one, with Cross favoured, but Martin's form is real so I'm going to call this 60/40 in Rob's favour, which aligns exactly with his 4/6 pricing.

Aspinall/Joyce - Nathan was the only player on day one to be forced to a deciding leg, this was by Searle, who just didn't score enough in the last leg until it was way too late, while Joyce got a good win early on against Rock, the first set appearing close but Ryan came through strongly in the second set. This is showing in projections as a coin flip, but Joyce is available at 11/8, and he was someone who we were considering in the opening round. I guess it's a case of if you think Aspinall is not right and the data is mainly from when he's been right, then go with it, but if you think he's back to his best and there's enough data in the sample from where he's not been 100%, it can take things out of having an edge. I don't try to gauge players where there's been injury issues so will just pass what might be a little bit of an opportunity.

Anderson/de Decker - Gary needed every bit of his match with Smith to get over the line, Smith missing I believe a match dart or two, while Mike also went the distance in a fantastic match (especially on the doubling) with Heta, if you've not seen that one, stop whatever you're doing and go watch it right now, it's a match of the year contender (and Heta definitely did miss a match dart in that one). Gary is strongly favoured in the projections as you might expect, being closer to three in four than two in three, both have a bit of freedom having been in bad spots in the first round so that sort of intangible I feel offsets, the market has Gary at 2/5 which doesn't seem unreasonable in the slightest.

Price/Wade - Gerwyn came through a very tough opponent in Noppert, who was 2-0 up in the deciding set but was not able to generate more than the singular match dart, while Wade could have made things easier against Wright, squandering a 2-0 lead of his own in the opener which Peter took, although as Wright only took one further leg after that I doubt James will be that concerned. Price is better here, and I've got projections showing him as getting close to two in three chances. Maybe that's a bit harsh given Wade's form, and the market certainly has it a little tighter, and while I don't think the 4/6 available on Price is in any way bad, I'll give Wade's levels right now enough benefit of the doubt to not take the bet here.

Gurney/Cullen - Now we see the two players with probably the biggest upsets of round one - Daryl won ever leg against MvG and the numbers looked pretty darned solid, while Joe was able to come from a set down to take out Chris Dobey who just couldn't get away after the opener. This I feel is an OK spot for Daryl, but Cullen's doing enough to keep this at around a 55/45 sort of game, the market's in more or less the same spot so an easy no bet here.

Chisnall/van den Bergh - Dave had the joint most routine win of the opening round, not dropping a leg against Menzies (go full time already ffs), while Dimitri got embroiled in a high quality game against Woodhouse and needed to come from a set down to take the spoils. Dave has been showing enough for some time that he looks solidly better and I'm floating a projection as around a 2-1 favourite. Maybe Dimi is one that can up things slightly on TV, and he did look really good in round one (not that Dave looked bad), so maybe there's enough slight intangibles that a 4/6 line for Dave isn't quite enough to take Chizzy to reach the quarters.

So still no bets, but a few things you might want to consider if you want to push things out a touch.

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