Sunday 17 April 2022

ET3 round 2 tips

Small profit yesterday. Barney and van Peer won as expected - Larsson was a fair bit better than we thought, but Wilson was clearly struggling, maybe we could have gone larger in retrospect. Hopp got the job done, Hunt not so much, while Meikle... he wasn't that far off. Missed a dart at double in the first, looks like he should have got more having 116 left with Chizzy not on a finish but seems like he got a bounceout. Then in leg four he had half a chance missing a dart for a twelve. Get just one of those and it's 5-5. Oh well. Looks like oddschecker is shitting the bed again so going to have to jank it up with a bunch of tabs open, let's see.

Rydz/Brown - Keegan didn't look too bad in an easy win yesterday and gets another north east player first up, Callan is rightly the favourite but maybe slightly too short, we can't get 1/2 and I'm only seeing him with low 60% winrates regardless of sample used. 15/8 on Betfair is hence moderately tempting, but I don't think there's quite the edge there.

Cross/Sedlacek - Touched on this one slightly earlier given we know Karel got a bye, he's clearly playing very well and in my eyes should nick this one out of three times. The best we're getting is 13/5 though, which really isn't the odds I'm after. Is this the market overreacting to Sedlacek's form? Continuing to sleep on Cross? A bit of both? Regardless, we're not betting this one and Rob can definitely not be considered for any accas.

van Duijvenbode/Krcmar - Boris got home first game in a little bit of a scrappy affair against Woodhouse, and faces a much tougher opponent who is in form and priced as such, a best price of 2/5 is short. Longer data I see Boris having 35% chances, in 2022 data it's up to 40%. I think with Hills being on the DvD hype train more than most we can take a small stab here, 0.1u Krcmar 9/4, just small as if Dirk continues where he left off last weekend he may well be unplayable, but Boris with confidence, which he should have given he's got a win, can be a handful.

de Sousa/Razma - Madars won a swingy game against Huybrechts, capping it off with a showpiece 150 out to win the match, and now faces Jose, and can we say of late that he's that much better than Kim is? We can get as much as 9/4 on him, is that worth the shot? Actually, not really. Longer form puts Jose at 70%, more like one in three on this season, so I'll pass on it.

Cullen/Plaisier - Wesley moved through with the performance of the round, a 104 average is certainly going to draw some attention. If someone can play like that, we're definitely not interested in Cullen at 1/4, question is do we want to go the other way? It's tempting, it has to be said, but a big reason why a lot of associates are associates is consistency, do we really think he's going to back it up? Good luck if he does.

Humphries/de Zwaan - Jeffrey came through an entertaining game against VvdV with both in the mid 90's and Jeffrey needing to come from 5-4 down - although Vincent completely shit the bed on throw at that point, leaving 283 after twelve is saying "break me please" and de Zwaan did. This should be another entertaining game played at a great pace, but I think what looked to be Humphries at a prohibitively short price is actually accurate - over 6 months worth of data I only see Jeffrey at 22% chances. This season it's even worse. It's hard to imagine that given the quality of player that we know de Zwaan is and the performance he put in yesterday, but that's where we're at, Luke is actually quite good.

Dolan/Schindler - Martin easily dealt with Wattimena, got up early then after a small fightback powered away to a 6-3 win and now faces Brendan, who's always going to be a tough opponent but one whose pace I think ought to benefit Martin somewhat. Market says pick em, over the four books I'm looking at, we can't get evens on either player in any of them. Longer data favours Dolan ever so slightly, 2022 data actually favours Dolan a bit more where we might even consider a bet, but that seems counterintuitive and there is a fair bit of a consistency differential here. Schindler, of all players who've played over 200 legs in 2022, has the fourth best consistency rating, which for new readers, I'm defining as taking away the scoring in legs lost from the scoring in legs won. Only Scott Williams, Soutar and de Zwaan are better there (so, looking at that, maybe Jeffrey has a bit more of a chance in the previous game?)

Clayton/Chisnall - Kind of surprised this one didn't get picked up for the evening session, but it does look a fairly stacked card. Dave did what he had to do, talked about the game earlier, let's get straight into the market, Clayton is shorter than 1/2. Wow. I see Dave as having 36% on six months data, which indicates that the line is not backable on that sample, albeit Clayton favoured, but in 2022, it's 44%. So 2/1 on someone with that winning chance who hit >50% doubles, six maxes and a 98 average yesterday? Yes please, 0.1u Chisnall 2/1

I will post the evening session up in another post in the next hour, conscious we're close to the off so want to get the tips out even though we don't touch the first two games.

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