Monday 18 April 2022

ET3 quarters

Nice little earner on Humphries, which takes us back to a small profit for the tournament - we're down to eight players now, let's have a quick scan:

Lukeman/Schindler - Huge game for both, market seems to have Schindler as a solid, better than two in three favourite. That seems ever so slightly too short, I don't see Schindler up at 65%, and in 2022, it's closer to 60% than 65%. That said, with the vig in the market I can't recommend a play on Lukeman, particularly in what should be a charged atmosphere which to the best of my knowledge would be new to him.

Heta/Clayton - Why is Clayton the favourite here? Damon's really fucking good, and he's 6/4 in all markets? I've got him as a small favourite over six month data, in 2022 it grows from 54% to 59%. That's a big edge and I'm making the play, 0.25u Heta 6/4, there's always a risk he does something like he did in the UK Open at this stage, but I don't think anyone can realistically say Clayton is a significantly better player that he takes it 60% of the time.

Brown/van Gerwen - Nice run for Keegan, but it surely comes to an end here. I don't see him as having much more than a one in five shot, lowering to one in six when we look at more form-based samples, and he's not exactly put up amazing stats here outside of his first round win against Hunt. 1/5 looks to be a very fair price.

Humphries/Plaisier - Can the dream run for Wesley continue? Humphries is going to be a fairly large roadblock if it is to be the case, with Luke coming in at the 75-80% range for all games. The price is a bit shorter than Dirk was, but Humphries seems like an extremely similar player to Dirk over six months, in 2022 he's finishing legs a couple of points per turn better, so maybe it's fair enough? If I could get, say, 7/2 on Plaisier I'd take the flier, but we can't even get 3/1 right now, so I'll keep an eye out but not recommend a play.

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