Sunday 17 April 2022

ET3 round 2 evening session

We continue...

van den Bergh/Hopp - Max came through against Soutar, not the most convincing of performances however and will need to step his game up against Dimitri, this feels like one where Dimitri being a best price of 1/4 is very accurate. Going to be an extremely tough game for Hopp here. But hey, with the German crowd, who knows?

Heta/van Barneveld - Raymond looked OK yesterday but he wasn't really tested so hard to read anything into this, Heta is actually shorter than 1/2 so his game is being respected - or maybe the market thinks Barney is a spent force? Looks fine though, got Damon at 70% on the last six months form and over 75% in 2022. Should still be a good game.

Clemens/Lukeman - Martin was a bit up and down yesterday, didn't hit the quality we knew he can produce, but as Gawlas concentrated all his good arrows into three legs, it didn't really matter. Clemens is up next having been promoted into the seeds and is only around a 60/40 favourite, even closer in some markets. That seems spot on to be honest, whatever sample I look at Lukeman is just a shade better than 40% to claim the match, so will move on to game four.

Price/Barry - Which will be a fun one. Gerwyn is Gerwyn, questionable new walk on and everything, Keane was in, shall we say, an ugly match against Lukas Wenig with missed doubles galore. Price is typically 2/7, that looks around the right ballpark. Six month data, maybe it's a little long, 2022 data, maybe it's a little short, split the difference and it's fine.

Wright/Waites - The second player trading for the world number one spot up next, up against Scott Waites who only allowed Horvat one dart at double (on the end of a 160 out lol) despite averaging under 90. Wright is even shorter than Price is in the previous game, looking at the last six months and Waites was hovering over 20% so more or less right at the point where 7/2 is a fair price, but he drops off a bit once you cut out the tail end of 2021. Can't bet this one.

van Gerwen/Dobey - 30 dart breaks lol. Dobey looked OK but nothing more, he comes in at 2/1 against MvG. Honestly, if you gave me this price straight after the worlds I'd take it, but since then, van Gerwen's form has increased and Dobey has tailed off slightly to the point where the line looks spot on, if he'd been truly convincing yesterday then maybe, but 22 missed darts at a double, albeit most of them in one leg, jesus.

Searle/Baggish - Another missed double fest in round one, Danny missed 18, Junghans also missed a bunch, averages both under 80, it's not a good omen facing someone with the quality and form of Searle, who's rated at 83% over the last six months, and in 2022, the projections basically say Baggish wins one in about 15. Ouch. Do I want to take 1/5? I mean it looks safe enough, but there's enough margin for weird stuff to happen that I don't want to lump on. Your mileage may vary.

Smith/van Peer - Final game, Berry got into a surprisingly good game against Larsson, but Smith is an enormous step up and he's the same sort of silly odds on price that we've seen a few times tonight. Except wait, hold on. Over the last six months, Berry projects to win 30%. In 2022, it's 40%. What the heck? I can't see any consistency issues (he's within a quarter of a point of Smith) and I can't see any obvious data errors. Seems to be worth the flyer given a 95 average yesterday. 0.1u van Peer 3/1

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