Monday 18 April 2022

ET3 round 3

Bit of carnage yesterday with Price withdrawing, Wright going down and six other seeds dropping. We thought at the outset that a lot of qualifiers might come through and that's exactly what happened. As such it's a bit disappointing to go 0-3 on bets, but it wasn't too bad, Peer just blew it in leg seven, Krcmar did everything he had to apart from go out in fifteen in the decider, while Clayton was basically unplayable. Eight matches, let's rattle through them:

Barry/Lukeman - Huge opportunity for both here, appears very close on my ratings, which give Barry 53% chances regardless of timeframe - he is 8/11 which is correctly showing him as a small favourite and the vig makes no bets possible here. Should be a good one to start off.

Schindler/Searle - Feels like we've seen this matchup a few times recently, could just be me imagining it (I know Searle did own someone that we often bet on in a recent Pro Tour, was that Schindler?) I guess. Market favours Searle slightly better than 60/40, in the last six months that appears close to perfect, but just in 2022 Ryan actually projects to winning just over two in three - although this doesn't take into account Schindler's extremely good consistency score (and, by contrast, Searle's fairly high value). There wasn't enough edge to bet before that so it's an easy pass.

Waites/Heta - Scott pulled out the big upset yesterday and it only gets slightly easier, if that, against Heta, who saw off Barney by the one break in ten. 1/3 might actually be small value for Damon here, I'd have thought it to be 1/4 based on the last six months, if you look at just 2022, maybe it should be even shorter, but Waites has got to be the most confident he's been in a long time after yesterday's result, so I think I can avoid it.

Clayton/Hopp - Jonny was excellent against Chisnall in round two, while Hopp looked alright against Dimitri, but maybe not quite at his best. Didn't need to be with the Belgian lacking a bit of scoring. Clayton is a very short 1/5, on 2022 form that looks just about spot on. Expand the data set a little and it could even possibly be a little bit shorter.

Razma/Brown - This has opened up nicely for these (at least for one round), Razma dumped out de Sousa and Brown put away Rydz, it's a tricky one to call, over the last six months I've got Brown as a moderate (say mid 50% range) favourite, whereas in 2022 I've got Razma having the edge, but by a smaller margin. Wouldn't want to pick a winner here, with the bookies being unable to split them either, we can simply move on and ignore it.

van Gerwen/Cross - Michael needed a bit of a get out of jail card against Dobey, 5-3 down but got away with it, Chris' best chance coming in leg nine where given eighteen darts he could only generate two darts at double (which he obviously missed). Cross was in a small bit of trouble against Sedlacek early but powered away despite missing a lot of doubles. Market doesn't quite have van Gerwen as a two in three favourite, I see 62% in the last six months which seems about right, but only 57% in 2022, 13/8 Cross isn't quite long enough to consider this, but if we had to bet, it would be on Rob.

Smith/Humphries - Another game that should be fun, Smith maybe a little bit fortunate to have been gifted the key break by van Peer, Humphries was admittedly not at his best against de Zwaan but did enough to move through, and the market has these two very close, Smith at around the 55/45 favourite. It's flippy over the last six months, but in 2022 Luke becomes a solid favourite - just over 60%. I think there is enough here to take a poke, 0.25u Humphries 11/10, is actually slightly longer on betway.

Plaisier/van Duijvenbode - Talked about Dirk's game earlier, but Wesley got another big scalp in Cullen, not quite the blockbuster averages we saw in round one, but there were 14 missed darts at double which will have dragged things down a bit. Dirk's 4/9, that feels about right, we're obviously still lacking data on Plaisier but he's shown enough that grabbing this one in three seems a reasonable projection.

That's it, should be back later for the quarters.

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