Sunday 28 May 2023

Sindelfingen last 16

Before we start on the Euro Tour, props to Gordon Mathers for binking the minor WDF event down under, and also to Xiaochen Zong for getting a brace of Asian Tours, with Nitin Kumar showing alright form as well. Bit of a bastard to fill in the database with some of the names from this weekend!

Only bet yesterday lost, Aspinall just too good on the day, if you were selective with the maybes and got on the likes of Razma, van Veen and Schindler you were doing alright though, eight games today, let's go through them:

Bet this:


Perhaps bet this:

van Veen > Rock - Hook this one up to my veins. Rock had no trouble with Brown yesterday, we thought that Brown could be in trouble if he repeated his game from Friday, if anything he was worse, while van Veen continues to look excellent (first leg excepted) in a narrow win over Noppert. This feels close - on twelve month form Rock's up at right in the middle of 60% and 65%, which is no big deal with van Veen at 6/4, 8/5 in spots. On 2023 data however, it's a coinflip. Feasible that it makes sense to be like this, a lot of the 2022 data on Gian will be from the secondary tours, so maybe the game is this close?

Don't bet this:

Chisnall/Ratajski - This is extremely similar to the van Veen against Rock situation. Ratajski is down just below 40% year long, but extremely close to 50/50 on this year's form. Difference is that we can't get better than 5/4, 13/10 sorts of prices on Krzysztof, which doesn't represent a substantial enough edge to consider it just on current form. Maybe also a fatigue factor, Dave was second on yesterday with, after a slow first couple of legs, a very convincing display against Rupprecht, while Ratajski was last on and went all the way against Dimitri. Probably will be no big deal, but the added rest for Dave can't help matters if we're looking to bet this one.

Smith/Gurney - Ross had no trouble with Steve Beaton, whitewashing the veteran, while Gurney didn't play quite at his best but got a good win over Dirk who maybe wasn't quite at his best. Don't see too much here, Gurney's 6/4 which indicates that Ross is a touch overvalued, but I only have Daryl at 40% year long with just a couple of percent improvement in the 2023 sample, so while it's not a negative EV play there isn't the confidence level to realistically say you should look at it.

Aspinall/Razma - Madars took advantage of a mediocre performance from Searle to run out a 6-1 winner, while Nathan only had the one questionable leg in an otherwise excellent display to give de Sousa no reasonable chance of winning. Market seems close enough to correct, Madars is floating in the high 20% range regardless of sample, so while Laddies are offering a touch more than 3/1 on your money, it's another no real solid edge spot and the relative performances of both aren't doing anything to change my mind and think more about this one, if anything they do the opposite.

Cross/Montgomery - Rob was a bit up and down yesterday, but as Kleermaker was more down than up, didn't have any issues and got home with the 6-2 win, while Ross got one of the bigger surprises of the Euro Tour year with a win over Clayton which looks opportunistic more than anything. Nothing really of interest here, Ross is at or around 4/1, Rob is 80% season long, Ross does improve in chances a bit on 2023 data but I'm finding it hard to believe that's anything other than a moderate sample size thing, and find it really hard to imagine him going with back to back huge upsets.

Heta/Cullen - Feels like we've had this match dozens of times over the last twelve months, we've bet Heta dozens of times over the last twelve months, and we've lost dozens of times over the last twelve months. We won't be doing that here, Damon's a marginal market favourite, he's only just over 55% year long and Joe pulls that back slightly on 2023 form, albeit Heta remains a tiny favourite. Not really interested in pushing 10/11 on Damon, who didn't need to do that much to beat Adam Smith-Neale, Joe looked a touch better against Payne but needed every leg to get home.

Humphries/van Barneveld - Luke got involved in a humdinger with Chris Dobey, nearly fucking up a 5-1 lead and it was only Dobey missing three clear at 24 for the match that let him sneak through, while Raymond had a surprisingly easy ride, not dropping a leg against an under par Andrew Gilding. No real interest in betting this one, Luke's at 58% year long, rising a couple of points in more recent data, so with Barney at around 6/4 at a best price, there's nothing here to get excited about.

Price/Schindler - Gerwyn eased through against Ricky Evans, there was one clown show leg but other than that Price didn't really put a foor wrong, while Schindler was allowed to get a decent lead against Clemens with a couple of very cheap breaks, and a third in leg nine sealed the deal. Martin's typically around 3/1, he's a bit better than that over the last twelve months by maybe 3%, but in 2023 with Gerwyn hitting peak form he's a bit worse than 3/1 by about the same margin. Pretty easy pass on this one.

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