Thursday 11 May 2023

Prague day 1

Draw is done, qualifier is in the bag, looks like there's a few decent players coming through, would have been great to see Masek get through who looked the pick, shanking double twelve for a nine, but he didn't, oh well. Let's go straight into it with lines being up:


0.25u Gawlas 13/10 v Razma - We finally get a bet deep into the evening session and we go with the home town lad Adam, who'll have the crowd well on his side, a 54% winning chance against a maybe not at his best Madars, and a generous price on Hills compared to the 11/10 that is generally available.
0.25u Rydz evs v Huybrechts - Yeah, I thought this one was a bit odd, with Callan seemingly being way out of form with it being quite some time since the last time he did anything notable, looking right out of sorts at least once on TV and Kim having won a title this year. But on year long stats, Callan projects at 60%, a figure that does not drop more than 3 or 4 points if we cut down to, say, the worlds forward inclusive. Appears weird, I know, but we'll trust the numbers here.


Lukeman > Kovacs - Not a great deal of data on Patrik, only having 11 legs which seemed mostly won, I'm guessing from a WDF event, Lukeman should be way too strong. Patrik's only scoring 75 compared to Martin's near 90, was only averaging a mediocre standard in the Eastern European qualifier (naturally weaker due to no Czechs) although he did beat a couple of half-decent players. 1/4 might be a touch of an underestimate.
Sebesta > Slevin - Dylan feels like he's tailed off a touch since his good start, dropping overall scoring down to 88, which I think brings Sebesta into play, who's at home, has got through a couple of qualis this season already, and the scoring isn't that far off Dylan's. Still think Slevin ought to be too good, but there's a couple of places offering a fair bit better than the generally available 3/1, which I think is at least long enough to consider.
de Decker > White - Mike's in the ascendancy, Ian's recovering, and the market is saying evens each way. I've got Mike at nearer to 53% than 52%, which is a tiny edge but not enough of an edge to truly consider.
de Sousa > Brooks - Feels like we've seen Bradley a few times of late, getting the occasional good result which might overrate him a touch against de Sousa, the market's saying Jose at bang on two out of three times, I'm getting him slightly over 70% which is getting into the edge where we start thinking about it, but it's not quite enough. 4/7 I'd probably go with it.
Hughes > van der Voort - This one feels close as well, two players looking to arrest a slide, Jamie showing a brief flash earlier in the year with a deep Pro Tour run while Vincent's done little for quite some time now. I'm getting Jamie just over 60%, so 5/6 is in the region of being worth considering, but it's not quite enough.
Laurila > Smith - This is just a "it's a silly price, can we really consider it" option, Jani looked up and down in getting through the Nordic qualifier, I'm mainly looking at the one game where he averaged 93 over an eleven leg spell - do that and you shouldn't be a 14/1 underdog against anyone. Ross Smith is probably the worst draw he could have got, but you never know.
Beaton > Labanauskas - this is almost the same sort of projections and line as the JdS match - I've got Steve bang on 71%, while Darius is still getting enough on name value alone at this stage to keep Steve as just an 8/15 favourite. One more percent or one more tick in Steve's favour and I probably punt, such is the disparity in form between players that, on paper, you would think ought to be fairly evenly matched.
Sedlacek > Sparidaans - Line appears fairly close to spot on, with Karel at 1/2 and him having a 68% chance, but penultimate game on at home, I think it's maybe closer to a play than a clear no bet, particularly with Jeffrey, who to be fair hasn't looked too bad on occasions since getting his card back, maybe big stage rusty as well.


Bellmont/Rodriguez - Stefan's looked half decent on occasions, and runs into Rowby who, if you look back at the 180 in 180 post a little bit down, is right out of form. I'm not sure that Stefan's the better player, but the line that is set at 40% chances looks like it's not going to be too far off the mark.
Nentjes/Pisek - Geert is seemingly not quite at the best form he's been in, but still should have more than enough for domestic qualifier Pisek, who got through with low to mid 80's averages throughout, which isn't too bad but not in Nentjes' calibre. Maybe with Geert being not at peak and it being a hometown crowd (at 2pm on a Friday though?), maybe David at 3/1 is not too bad, but I think it'd be longer without those factors so happy to avoid it.
Vandenbogaerde/Campbell - First game between card holders, and the line's looking round about correct. Matt's had some alright games but Mario's good enough that the projection's only at about 57% in favour of the Canadian. 4/6 is of no interest obviously, but 13/10 on the Belgian is similarly boring.
Veenstra/Smolik - Dalibor is here for b2b appearances, and looked alright for a short period last week, but Richard's going to be too consistent and strong, Smolik finished the quali with b3b 83 averages which isn't really going to cut the mustard. 7/1 is kind of huge but Veenstra is an extremely tough draw to come through.
Klaasen/Dolan - Not between card holders, but we've got enough data on Jelle to be more than confident about his level of play, which is giving him a 35% shot against Brendan. I'd have thought it might have been a bit higher, but it is what it is and the market puts Dolan at 8/15, which is exactly in agreement, so can't really recommend a play on Jelle at 13/8 even if we think the projection is an underestimate.
Kleermaker/Bunting - Thought this would be a "well we know Stephen's really underrated, but 12/5 for Martijn, that's surely worth a punt" kind of spot. Then I put the numbers in and it spits out 27% for Kleermaker, and then put my wallet back in my pocket.

So just the two punts, one of which is somewhat bookie dependent, but there's a lot of randoms that are hard to judge in this one so we'll look more to Saturday I guess.

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