Friday 26 May 2023

ET9 round 1 bets


0.1u Kurz 10/3 vs de Sousa - Bet is purely based on the price, what we have seen Nico do in the past, and that he seemed to play alright in the qualifier which was only last week. Jose's playing fine, but better than 3/1 in Germany seems to be intuitively correct to take.
0.1u Payne 12/5 vs Whitlock - I think this is worth a look. We don't have a mountain of data on Josh, but he's played enough in 2023 that he doesn't appear that far off of where Whitlock is, and we know at his peak he's capable of winning Pro Tours. 42% is what I'm seeing, the line is implying around 30%, that's a tasty enough edge for a small stab.
0.1u Evans 12/5 vs Clemens - There is a wild consistency problem in this one, Evans is scoring higher than Gabriel in won legs in 2023 by nearly two points, but Lee is scoring over seven points a turn less in the legs he's lost, whereas Clemens is actually scoring higher in his losing legs than his winning ones. That evens out somewhat in 12 month data, which gives Clemens an edge as opposed to Evans having an edge - but not by much, and this is a very solid price to take. Can get better on random books and exchanges.


van Veen > Wattimena - 8/11 on Hills appears pretty close to value. That said, I thought Gian would be a bigger leader in the projections. Don't hate the play if you want to go with it but wouldn't take any shorter.
Edhouse > Razma - Bookies can't really split them, what looks like an obvious play on Ritchie on full data is offset by Razma playing better of late (or Edhouse playing worse).
White > Evans - There's a couple of very random books that are offering 4/5, which I think is a play, and I can get that on the exchange, but the closest we can get on a reputable book is 3/4 on Coralbrokes, which is nearly enough but not quite.
Kleermaker > Soutar - Bit of a weird one in that the projections based on full 12 month data and 2023 data are a bit all over the place. Market has Martijn a shade longer than evens, so I'm kind of tempted to play the guy who's playing better right now (when was the last time we heard of Soutar doing anything?), but the trust in larger data is making me say no.
Benecky > Smith-Neale - We don't have a great deal of data on Roman, but someone who beat Ando fairly recently feels like he ought to be value at 7/4 against Smith-Neale? How much of that was Gary playing bad though, that's the question.


Rupprecht/Kist - Surprised to see Pascal actually favoured here, there's not enormous data on both with Kist not being a card holder and Rupprecht being moderately new, but it thinks the German's a small favourite and the market agrees.
Usher/Ratajski - Market is correct in its assessment of how much better Krzysztof is here.
Montgomery/Kantele - Got to trust in what data we have on Marko, which is saying Ross should win about as often as the 4/6 price suggests. Feels kind of wrong given Marko's seemingly having a good season, but a good season at the SDC level is seemingly still a dog to someone, without meaning to sound harsh on Ross as he's done better than I thought he would, effectively making up the numbers at tour card level.
Brown/Walpen - Hard to really say how good Marcel is. Very difficult to suggest that a best price of 3/1 can possibly be value, but equally hard to take Keegan at shorter than 1/3 against anyone without decent data, even if he has won a Pro Tour in recent memory.
Slevin/Gurney - I've got this bang on 2/1, Daryl's a tick shorter than that, nothing really doing here, feels like the early 2023 hype on Dylan has died down incredibly quickly.
Hall/Dobey - Maybe the longer data is giving the slightest of slight values on Graham, but I'm not touching it.
Beaton/Pietreczko - I can only see this as being outside of 50/50 by a percentage point or two, and neither player is odds against anywhere.
van Barneveld/Maendl-Lawrance - Liam's obviously doing something right to have got to as many events this year as he has, but 7/2 on someone who's actually scoring only 84 once he's got there against Barney is not of interest. Weirder things have happened, but not that many.

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