How we find each way value - a walk through guide

As I've got a bit of time before the off, I'm going to look at the PC11 draw and work out who I might want to bet on. Generally I look for two things - players who have a decent draw, and players who are undervalued. The first is important as I don't think the market adjusts enough to someone ending up on a bad board or at least a bad first round draw, and secondly we clearly want to be betting players that we think will give us a better return on investment than the market is suggesting. I'm going to go through each quarter and board - usually I want to highlight one player per board who I think may not have the best chance of winning it, but will have some chance of winning it.

For each player I will list their scoring this year, and their odds on Betfair

Q1:

B1: Chisnall (94, 16), Clark (80, 500), Fullwell (81, 500), Payne (87, 500), Rydz (91, 125), Klose (89, 200), Burness (88, 500), Killington (86, 500)

B2: R Smith (93, 40), Murnan (85, 250), Nentjes (86, 250), Evetts (88, 250), van den Bergh (92, 28), Rupprecht (89, 250), Kciuk (87, 500), Andersen (84, 500)

B3: Clayton (95, 14), Monk (90, 250), L Evans (90, 250), Raman (86, 500), Anderson (96, 20), van Dongen (85, 500), Woodhouse (91, 200), Sparidaans (86, 500)

B4: Cross (93, 16), Roelofs (87, 250), Edhouse (89, 250), Hempel (84, 500), K Huybrechts (91, 175), Waites (89, 250), Jansen (85, 500), Brooks (89, 250)

Board one seems like an obvious Chisnall, but a bit too short to really consider. Board two seems like a two horse race, but Smith over Dimi given the relative route to the board final, quality and odds is preferred. Woodhouse might be the pick on three given Clayton and Ando don't really appeal, but I don't see how he realises the chances that often. Then on board 4, Cross looks the pick, but Huybrechts is not that far off and has a much better price. I think this quarter has to be Ross Smith for me.

Q2:

B5: Heta (92, 50), Veenstra (91, 200), Cole (84, not priced), Scutt (88, 250), Razma (88, 250), Joyce (91, 175), Goffin (82, 500), Meikle (89, 250)

B6: Cullen (92, 28), Justicia (89, 250), Menzies (92, 200), Knops (83, 500), Bunting (92, 66), Burton (86, 500), J Williams (93, 175), Vandenbogaerde (91, 250)

B7: Rock (94, 12), Petersen (84, 500), Landman (89, 250), Gawlas (88, 250), Whitlock (90, 175), Soutar (88, 175), Pietreczko (90, 200), Henderson (89, 250)

B8: Schindler (91, 66), Kleermaker (89, 250), van Trijp (85, 500), van der Voort (88, 200), Dobey (93, 25), R Evans (91, 200), Wilson (88, 500), Szaganski (87, 500)

Board five seems Heta really long, but Veenstra is a bastard of a draw, and I'd probably look more towards Joyce or Meikle for the value if we went for this board. Board 6 looks like it's clearly Jim here. That's a big price, he's longer than Bunting and playing better, although Menzies is worth considering. Board 7 I can't look past Rock, although Pietreczko might have a sniff, while on board 8, I think both Dobey and Schindler are a bit too short for their quality, so Evans would be the one for me. Clearly has to be Jim Williams from this quarter.

Q3:

B9: Humphries (95, 20), Mol (86, 500), Lennon (91, 200), Smith-Neale (87, 500), de Decker (92, 175), Ward (90, not priced), Labanauskas (87, 500), Peters (82, 500)

B10: Ratajski (93, 66), L Williams (86, 500), Wilkinson (89, 500), van der Velde (86, 500), de Sousa (91, 125), Suljovic (87, 175), Hughes (90, 200), Barry (91, 150)

B11: Price (98, 3.5), Lukeman (88, 175), Kenny (90, 250), Brown (90, 250), Beaton (89, 250), Rowby (85, 200), Usher (88, 500), Labre (87, 500)

B12: van Gerwen (94, 4.5), Krcmar (91, 200), Crabtree (87, 250), S Williams (90, 200), Gurney (91, 125), Owen (88, 500), de Zwaan (89, 175), Burnett (87, 250)

Board 9 we need to look at de Decker. Is on the up, that side of the board is about as easy as it gets, Humphries is clearly better but the price is not right and Lennon could be tricky. Board 10 looks to be a super easy Ratajski. He's playing well, the board only really has de Sousa or maybe the winner of the last game to worry about. Board 11 is Price, while board 12 does have van Gerwen on it which surprised me given Thursday (indeed, Betfair didn't initially have him priced up). Taking Ratajski, clearly can't pick anyone from the Price/MvG side, someone having to go through both of them would be too tough and neither is any value at all.

Q4:

B13: van Duijvenbode (94, 20), Whitehead (86, 250), White (93, 200), Wattimena (91, 250), van Barneveld (91, 66), Rusty (88, 250), Kuivenhoven (87, 250), Zonneveld (90, 200)

B14: Gilding (92, 125), R Huybrechts (86, 500), Webster (86, 500), O'Connor (90, 175), Clemens (92, 66), Martinez (88, 500), Montgomery (89, 250), Doets (87, 250)

B15: Noppert (92, 40), Meulenkamp (88, 500), Hall (89, 500), Slevin (88, 250), Wade (91, 125), King (88, 200), van Veen (94, 100), Jones (87, 500)

B16: Searle (93, 28), Sedlacek (88, 200), Hendriks (89, 500), Bates (88, 500), Dolan (91, 175), Campbell (89, 200), Rafferty (87, 250), Lovely (85, not priced)

Board 13 has White jumping out, Dirk isn't actually too badly priced but Ian returning to form seems like a more realistic proposition and he's ten times the odds. Board 14 has to be Gilding, can't see anyone offering too much resistance to the seeds, so with a similar record and 125 and 66 being the odds, we take the guy in three figures. Board 15 is van Veen and it's not close, we'd normally consider Noppert but Gian is incredible, and board 16 is again pick your poison with the seeds. Has to be van Veen, who's going to be the first name to look for in these until the market catches up. He was 175, but has been backed into 100's, so maybe the market is catching up, but that's still good enough for me.