Sunday 7 May 2023

Belgium last 16

Little bit of a rough day yesterday giving back a quarter of a unit, Campbell and Anderson got the job done, de Sousa I think gave us value for the bet, Gilding certainly wasn't bad, just Baetens was better, perhaps the best we've seen him to date, then Wright. Oh dear. Losing one bet from a 5-2 position in an event is bad, losing two is very unfortunate. Oh well, there's eight games today, let's look at those in a minute, but briefly, Berry van Peer jesus christ, winning both Challenge Tours yesterday, making it three in four for the weekend and four overall this year, it's certainly not an unassailable lead that he has but it is really, really strong.


0.1u Heta 6/4 vs Clayton - I'm seeing this as a coinflip, and the Hills line is implying he's only got 40% chances. I could probably go a normal bet here, but my original thought was not to bet at all, so I'll split the difference. I'm not sure why, there's just something about the performance Damon put up yesterday which wasn't inspiring, he didn't need to do that much to beat Mol but you'd have liked him to be better. Clayton on the other hand looked solid against Barry. We'll still go, but just small.
0.1u Schindler 5/2 vs van Gerwen - This is another redo from last weekend, there we got 3/1 which we're not seeing, but Martin's actually a percentage point up in the projections compared to last week, which doesn't completely compensate for the worse line but still indicates just enough value to take a small stab. He'll need to play better today than he did yesterday for sure, but we know he can.


Humphries > Baetens - I'm not going to potentially get caught out twice here. 2/5 on Luke is half a tempter, I've got him at 76% to win the game, but that's certainly not the level of edge we appeared to have yesterday and if Andy's outplaying his year long stats, which isn't an unreasonable assessment, what looks like almost enough edge to bet probably isn't there in reality.
Noppert > Aspinall - This is a redo from last week, and we get the exact same price and projection - Noppie's 11/10, and I have him at 53%. Of course, Danny won that one. We're going to keep it in the same bracket, after all Danny is not on home soil in this one, if we couldn't push a match in the Netherlands up to a bet, we're not taking one in Belgium there.


van Duijvenbode v Campbell - The line might be juiced ever so slightly in Dirk's favour, I'm getting Campbell at 30%, so the 9/4 on Betfair is break even compared to a best of 1/3 on DvD, but we don't bet break even.
Chisnall v Rock - Every bookie can't split them, it's just a case of how much they take the piss with vig (how Betfair get away with both being 5/6 compared to 10/11 is amazing). Chizzy's ever so slightly better at 52% but there's no edge to speak of.
Smith v Clemens - Feels like there's enormous amounts of vig in this game. I've got Gabriel as a fraction of a percent better than 30%, we're typically seeing prices just one side of 2/1 or the other, which isn't paying nearly enough, at the same time Smith is best priced 2/5, which also doesn't look great and he's shorter than 1/3 in places. Avoid.
Cross v Anderson - The value train has made its last call for the weekend I think. I've got Ando as favourite, around 60/40 - thought it might have been a little closer, but it isn't. Gary's around 4/7, 813, that sort of no value price, Rob's 13/10 or so, again, no value.

Maybe I do something before the quarters.

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