Sunday 23 April 2023

Austria last 16

Pretty chalky day two, looks like we only lost four seeds, Schindler going out to Whitlock wasn't a shocker (although the manner in which he did somewhat was, similar with Humphries to Gurney), Wright continuing poor form also wasn't surprising, then we have Mickey Mansell. Nice job. Two quick things before we get into the last sixteen - if anyone wants to realise why Wikipedia is a useless resource, you only need to look at the enormous vandalism which has been done to all the darts pages of late. Second, good luck to Adie in the forthcoming months after he's announced he's taking a break from the pro game. As he stated in his announcement, it is a huge amount of time that he's been playing, around twenty years, and he's definitely at a low point in terms of results. He'll know what's right for him, hopefully he can come back in the near future and be refreshed and back up near to his best.

Gurney/Gilding - Appears pretty close. Andrew's playing the better stuff, but it's not by a great deal - would call this slightly closer to 55% than a 60% game for Gilding. The market generally agrees with this assessment.

Aspinall/Noppert - Another really tight one, if anything closer than the one above, Nathan is in my eyes the underdog, but has more than 45% chances. The market, perhaps swayed by his recent Premier League night win, actually has Nathan ahead, but with us only able to get 11/10 on Noppert, it's not quite enough edge to take the Dutchman.

Heta/Clayton - Probably the highest quality game of the three, and it's even tighter than the one above. I've got Damon slightly ahead, but we're not even talking 52/48. 6/5 is kind of the same line as the above one - it's not bad, but we don't quite have the edge to properly recommend.

van Duijvenbode/Cullen - Is Dirk the best player in this half? Looks like it to me. Dirk is a big favourite here, 65% chances for me. We can get 8/13, which is implying 62%, so it's the same again as the above - it's not bad, but there's not the edge. If anything, the edge is less than the previous two games.

Mansell/Rock - Doesn't get any easier for Mickey here, he's not drawing completely dead, but has under a 30% shot as I see it. Rock is 1/3 which offers zero value as Mansell should win more than one in four, we're not offered anything like a good price with the vig on the underdog though so it's a clear no bet.

Smith/Suljovic - Mensur is going to need to step up his game here, he got a lopsided win against Wright but did not play well at all to get it, and has pretty much spot on a one in four chance of pulling off the victory. 11/4 is more or less a standard line for this probability, no interest here.

van Gerwen/Whitlock - Simon meanwhile wasn't bad in his huge comeback yesterday, pretty similar stats to what van Gerwen had against Hendo. He's not out of this one by any stretch, he's not got one in three, but he's over 30% to nick this one - the price we can get on BetVictor is just about enough for me to go with a small flyer, 0.1u Whitlock 10/3, Simon does like beating van Gerwen after all. 3/1 is probably just about OK, but nothing shorter than that.

Cross/Searle - Final game and we've got another one that's a bit tough to call, I'm leaning the former world champion but only 55/45 or something like that. Maybe there's something not quite right after the Vandenbogaerde incident, but the performance yesterday was fine. Market is generally floating around 5/4 Searle which appears spot on, so nothing here.

Just the one bet, a few others to consider if you want to push whatever edges you can get. Will be watching football later so won't be posting anything before the quarters, but with just the one tip today and nothing yesterday, it seems safe to say there's no fear of missing out in the rest of the event.

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