Saturday 1 April 2023

Riesa round two

That was one palaver to get the Hempel v Wilson stats as sportradar didn't bother with the game, but fortunately found someone who restreamed enough of the evening session to get what I needed this morning so all is good in the end.

As mentioned prior there isn't going to be much here, just the actual plays, and we're only taking one player and it's a double down from a successful punt on what was a good day one with 0.1u de Decker 10/3, obviously against someone like Smith this can go horribly wrong in a hurry, but Mike is clearly in our circle of betting trust right now, and with a price indicating that he has less than a 25% shot and us thinking he has, at a minimum, 10% higher than that, we have to take the shot.

Not much else was close, if you look at a lot of the projected lines in the previous post they're fairly close to what oddschecker is listing, I was thinking about another flier on Campbell but I'd really need more than 5/1 to make the risk/reward worth it, and additionally in the afternoon session, Heta and de Sousa look marginally undervalued, but again not enough to go with an official play.

If I'm back in the morning it'll probably feature no bets, enough is close enough today that I anticipate bookies not getting out of line tomorrow, if Mike wins then I guess we'll end up letting it ride another time, but if we're only seeing one bet and three maybes then if the reason for the bet goes out, I can't see there being much there at all.

No comments:

Post a Comment