Monday 10 April 2023

Munich last 16

Not expecting any value today with the only value pick we made yesterday going out, but let's see:

Smith/Price - Nope, Price seems a clear 60/40 projection, maybe a bit higher with current form, Smith's one of the few players who could legitimately hang with him, but the odds look right.

Barry/van Peer - Looks like Keane has a slight edge to me. The market agrees. Big shot for both but likely one and done given the draw.

van Duijvenbode/Noppert - Seems like we've seen this one quite a bit, Dirk's better but not by a huge amount, but 13/10 is not enough on Danny to make us look at this one for more than a second. Line seems fine to me.

Heta/Dobey - Heta's actually slightly odds against, which confuses me as I see him as a near 60/40 play. Will take the Coralbrokes price, 0.25u Heta 21/20, evens also seems fine.

Aspinall/Williams - This one also seems really close, the market isn't really buying it. We're going to lay Nathan again, 0.25u Williams 7/4 on 365, I've got him above 45% so we've easily got enough edge on this one.

Chisnall/Gilding - Chizzy's still really good, and is maybe slightly undervalued given Andrew's major win. I've got him at 63%, 8/11 isn't quite enough, but it's pretty close to thinking about.

Evans/Cullen - Lee's cropped up as an underdog shot a few times, and got the easy win over Wright yesterday, Cullen is arguably just as strong a test if not more on current form, 12/5 is a little bit of a short price. I've got him as only just over one in three, certainly not a safe game for Joe but we can't take the shot here.

Humphries/de Sousa - Luke looked really good on a return to action yesterday, and appears like slightly more than a 60/40 favourite in my projections. Generally seems like the market has it more one sided, but nowhere near enough where we can consider taking de Sousa here.

So we do actually get two bets on the continually underrated Heta and Williams, against the possibly overrated Premier League pair. Just need one to hit to break even, let's see how it goes. Will not be back before the tournament is done.

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