Saturday 8 April 2023

Munich afternoon session

Going to get this one out pretty quickly and then come back with the evening session, bit short on time so splitting into two posts with this one being short and sweet. No oddschecker so just looking at 365/Betfair/Ladbrokes as only sources.

van Dongen/van Peer - Pretty decent data on both and it appears very hard to split them. Market is favouring Berry, which is understandable, 11/8 isn't a price on van Dongen that I'm really enamoured with. Would probably take 13/8.

Soutar/Evans - Seems moderately close but still Alan ought to be favoured around 60/40. We can get a little bit longer than Lee in some places, and it worked last week, 2/1 on 365 isn't quite enough to officially recommend but I don't hate it.

Campbell/Rydz - Appears fairly close again. Callan has an edge, but not by much, closer to 55% than 50%. Market has it slightly more but with vig there's no advantage in taking Matt in this one.

Vandenbogaerde/Warner - Got kind of limited stats on Adam, and they somewhat hint that he's playing better than his winning legs show, so a bit hard to judge. Everyone's pricing Mario at 2/5, the master computer puts him at 80%, but I think that's an overestimate due to the aforementioned consistency stats from Warner. That said, it is a debut... Not really enough to consider a bet, if I did it would be on the Belgian.

Boulton/Barry - Appears another tight duel. I've got Boulton as favoured ever so slightly, kind of the same range as the Rydz match. We can get slightly odds against, 11/10 is the best I can see though. If I could get 11/8 I'd probably start firing.

Waites/Horvat - Our data on Dragutin is really small and not particularly reliable, all depends which one turns up. Scott isn't priced particularly short though, and I kind of think the price is worth the play - 0.25u Waites 8/13, think that even if Horvat turns up Scott is too good often enough.

Dolan/de Zwaan - No issues with data sizes here, data is only favouring Brendan 55/45, and Jeffrey does appear to be improving after having to regain his card in January, so this ought to be really tight. Market is offering nothing, Brendan's typically 4/5, Jeffrey evens, nothing to see here.

Gilding/Kanik - Did have quite a lot of data on Tytus, but not so much this year, a long time since we've seen him. I could use someone that I think is fairly similar (Kciuk and Szaganski seem more or less interchangeable), but I won't. 1/4 on Gilding might be a bit short, Laddies have it a bit closer, but I'm really not interested in taking Kanik against Gilding at this point in time.

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