Saturday 8 April 2023

Munich evening session

Williams/van der Voort - Two established players here, one in the ascendancy against one possibly on a bit of a decline, as such it appears to me to be very much in Jim's favour, with Vincent only having a one in three chance. We can't get better than 8/15 on Jim, which appears to be pretty much a break even bet. No thanks, I want edge.

Gurney/Menzies - Another one that might be quite tight with Cameron playing fairly decent stuff of late, in fact he actually projects as a marginal favourite. Market is liking Gurney a lot more, so I think we have a play here, 0.25u Menzies 6/4 on Ladbrokes, I wouldn't go much shorter than that and still play, 11/8 I think is fine, 5/4 not so.

Whitlock/Beaton - A fine matchup between veterans who are not going away and continuing to produce high level stuff, albeit maybe not so frequently as previously. This should be a very good watch, although I think Simon's a touch better, call it 60/40. Market's showing generally 8/13, 4/7 sort of lines so no advantage here.

Smith/Hempel - Florian's getting a lot of shots at this level through his ranking, and he's run into a tough draw against major winner Smith, who I'm seeing as an overwhelming favourite, Hempel barely having a one in four chance to advance to Sunday. The market has it as even more one sided, which does surprise me a touch, with the vig however there certainly isn't the chance to take Hempel here.

Owen/Maendl-Lawrance - Liam got a win but how good is he really? I recall a lot of the legs he did win not being overly impressive, so I would think Robert will like his chances to move on to tomorrow here. We can get slightly better than 1/2, which I think is worth a nibble, 0.25u Owen 8/15 on Betfair, checking back, indeed eight of Liam's eleven legs won in my database were longer than fifteen darts, four of those being seven visit kills or worse. Owen should be too solid here.

White/van Barneveld - Another matchup between hugely experienced players, Raymond looking to build on his Grand Slam run and consolidate his ranking, White looking to rebuild and not be in a position where his card is at risk. Barney has the edge, but not by a great deal, split the difference between 55% and 60% I think. Market tends to agree, maybe favouring Barney a little bit more, not enough value on Ian to consider anything though.

Dobey/Martinez - Not seen Chris do a huge amount so far this year after getting his TV win, while Tony pops up now and again and surprises us with a good run or win, so is capable of pulling an upset - something which I think he might do reasonably often, a bit more than one third of the time. I'd have guessed less, and the market definitely thinks less, so we'll take a flyer here, 0.1u Martinez 9/2

Clemens/Lukasiak - Final game is a tough one to read as I know next to nothing about Oskar, but a line similar to the one in the last match looks about right. Seemingly averaging 83 on the Nordic tour isn't brilliant and shouldn't be anything Clemens has problems dealing with.

Back probably tomorrow morning with round two thoughts.

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