Thursday 20 April 2023

Austria day 1

I'm checking oddschecker right now, and it looks like they have comparisons for everything except the games with the home nations qualifiers in, which seems fine, let's go through quickly:

Kenny/Razma - This feels like it should be closer than it is, Madars is up there in the rankings but I'm not sure why, while Nick's not had some bad results, there's a fair bit of inconsistency in his sample but I'm getting the feeling he is playing the better darts right now, so I'm going to take a cautious stab, 0.1u Kenny 13/10, if we had more data I would be more aggressive and do not hate if you want to go that way.

Zukovs/Mansell - No idea about this guy. Seemingly Latvian who came through the Nordic/Baltic qualifier, don't see a great deal special about what he can do, not really interested.

Roelofs/Ratajski - Owen seems heavily outclassed here, and that's before Krzysztof won an event. Market concurs.

Menzies/Pietreczko - This is an interesting one between two players I could see betting on in any other matchup, Cameron ought to be a moderate favourite but isn't, seems fairly easy 0.25u evs Menzies on Coralbrokes with someone approaching 60% winning chances.

Haider/Woodhouse - First of the qualifiers from this afternoon. Haider's done nothing to inspire confidence, but with the only book I'm looking at for the rando games showing Luke at shorter than 1/3, I'm passing, Marcus appears to be not completely awful looking at the averages so may give some resistance.

Kuivenhoven/Brooks - Finding it pretty hard to call a winner here. Maik seems slightly better. Bookies can't separate them, when I say Kuivenhoven is better it's by a percent or two, so let's move on.

de Zwaan/Schnier - Second game I'm basically ignoring, Hannes seems basically the same, not bad but not good and Jeffrey should roll often enough that we can't consider a bet.

Henderson/Slevin - Old vs new, appears close in the market, long data gives Hendo a moderate edge, with this being I think Dylan's first Euro Tour event I'm fine to pass, which I probably would have done anyway regardless.

Campbell/White - Did we see this before recently? Feels like we did. Ian's better but not by much. Market concurs. Next.

O'Connor/Klaasen - Willie's been a bit anonymous for a while, Jelle seems to have been doing a bit more despite it being all off the tour. We've got more than enough on Jelle to get a decent read, and it seems to be agreeing with the market opinion that Willie should win this nearly two times out of three.

Huybrechts/Whitlock - Two players who are below where they think they should be, but who have had good tour wins early this season, appears hard to separate but I'm thinking Simon is maybe a touch better, which is perhaps surprising given the market, which is basically 10/11 the pair. I'm going to take a small shot, 0.1u Whitlock 10/11, it's marginal hence small, but I think he's a bit better than a pure flip.

Dolan/van Barneveld - Think both have tailed off a tad in the last few months, although Brendan had a decent floor run recently, Barney's better but at a best price of 4/6 there's not enough edge.

Meikle/Rodriguez - Ryan's not looked fantastic in a couple of recent events, so if there's some unnoticed off oche thing here this may look daft, but he's much better than Rowby. 0.25u Meikle evs

Gurney/Bunting - Don't know why Jim Williams keeps withdrawing. Seems silly, he could easily make the Matchplay. Stephen's better, not by a huge amount, market is shading him slightly, easy move on.

Sedlak/Dobey - Yeah, the qualifier is not going to trouble Chris. 1/8 is a bit lol but not ridiculous.

Evans/Suljovic - Finish with the big Austrian hope! Not talked about Mensur much of late, but he appears to have deteriorated to a point where this is a flip, and maybe Ricky has the heavy side of the coin. 13/10 isn't really enough for me to say go with it, but I would not be lumping on Mensur. Not at all.

That's it, back tomorrow evening.

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