Thursday 27 April 2023

ET6 round 1 picks

Going to post this in somewhat of a different format to usual - highlighting the plays first, then those where I was at least thinking about it, followed by those where there is no value. No oddschecker, so I'm just looking at 365, Betfair, Coralbrokes and Hills.


0.25u O'Shea 13/8 against Razma, I've got him ever so slightly favoured in a game between two players moderately similar in results, so getting a line that implies he has less than a 40% chance? Yes please.
0.25u van Veen 11/8 against Clemens, I'm pretty sure when I checked earlier this evening to see if lines had been posted he was even longer, I still think this is easily on the right side and 5/4 is still decent, maybe even ever so slightly shorter. 11/10 would probably be about my limit before cutting bet sizing.
0.1u van Barneveld 13/10 against van den Bergh, using the opportunity to go small here, this seems just enough edge in a pure flip, coupled with Dimitri travelling post Premier League and it's fucking Barney in the Netherlands, maybe Raymond outperforms projections more than we think.


Hall > Gawlas - 365 are real close with their 6/4 line. Certainly don't hate it, hence it's in the maybes, just kind of think Graham might take a leg or two to get used to the stage, which might be all Adam needs.
Soutar > van Peer - 5/6 is perhaps slightly on the favourable side, it's certainly very close, but I'm willing enough to give Berry the benefit of the doubt in terms of form.
Monk > White - This is basically down to the whole sample size issue I highlighted. Hills are offering 7/4, which if we take my suggested adjustment from what the limited data says, isn't a bad play. Question is whether I adjusted enough or too much. If it's the former, it's not a play, if it's the latter, we look silly. We don't need to bet for the sake of it, but for around a 0.1 level play, I don't hate it.
Pietreczko > Gurney - Ricardo's a rising star, and we can get 6/4 in places for a 45% shot, maybe I'd go tiny at 13/8, but they're both in ascendant form so inclined not to push things against Daryl here.
Beaton > Huybrechts - Steve is 13/10 everywhere I can see, which is the exact same situation we see in the Barney/Dimi game, except without the intangibles which pushes me over the edge to betting.

No chances:

Ratajski/Boulton -  Lines are all too similar and are middling by 70/30 projection.
Barry/Kantele - The better ends of the lines are more or less break even taking Keane, but we don't bet break even.
Williams/Killington - Market is just a touch favouring Jim more than what I see it, but it's so incredibly marginal there's nothing to even think about.
Lukeman/Dragt - This was close to being a maybe on Dragt given you can get more than a tick or two north of 2/1, but the averages in the quali weren't convincing enough.
Slevin/Hausotter - I mean this could look really silly if Hausotter turns out to be terrible and we get a good Slevin turn up, but we can't get better than 1/4, any edge we're passing up isn't a big deal.
Anderson/Benecky - 1/7 feels like it's safe, but you never know, weird stuff might happen.
Bunting/Smith-Neale - Another limited data pass, if we'd got maybe another 20-30 won legs worth of sample size then maybe we could bump 11/4 up into the maybes category, but we don't need to. Maybe the market is with me that there's a sense the general public is underrating Bunting.
Smith/Wattimena - Line is right bang in the middle where my 70/30 thoughts are losing both ways to vig.

Check back Saturday morning at the latest for round two stuff.

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