Sunday 17 December 2023

Day 3 thoughts, day 4 bets

Writing this while the Humphries/Evans game goes on, not expecting anything crazy to happen there, but if it does I'll pick it up on tomorrow's post. For now:

Evans/Adams, Williams/Madhoo - Just going to bundle these two together, as they both went exactly as expected, Ricky looked a bit better than maybe we thought, Williams was poor but this wasn't even a case of needing to get into second gear, he could have left it in neutral, got out and pushed, and still won.
Campbell/Ilagan - When Matt was winning legs, he was looking really good. When he wasn't, it was pretty darned mediocre. If Campbell can tighten things up a tad, he might not be completely dead against Wade I guess.
Cullen/Penhall - Darren regressed to where we thought he was pretty rapidly. Joe was merely OK, but didn't need to do much more at all. Not going to draw too much into this one, mainly just a case of Cullen getting the win and being done with it.
Slevin/Hempel - Pretty competitive, but Hempel looked mostly the better player after a torrid first set on paper. Will need to improve next round, but the signs are there.
Zonneveld/Webster - Another one that was a bit of a brutal watch, Webster had brief moments where it looked like he would make it competitive, but in the end he didn't.
Wattimena/Sherrock - Generally pleased with how Jermaine played in this one. Mardle trying desperately to conjure narratives out of nowhere was funny, Fallon looked pretty decent in the first set but couldn't sustain things at all in the slightest.

Just got the four games tomorrow with no afternoon session:

Vandenbogaerde/Tricole - Maybe there's a bit more pressure on Mario now than there was at the outset - while the Belgian would probably have known he's likely to need a win to retain his card, with Hempel winning earlier, he now knows it to be a fact. I'm not sure it affects him that much, and I think he's probably better than the markets suggest - 0.25u Vandenbogaerde 4/7 on Coralbrokes, I'm generally seeing dependent on sample size a winning percentage around 75% for this one, I simply don't think Thibault scores heavily enough, so will take the edge.
van Veen/Leung - Really don't have the sample size on Leung to make any realistic assessment on his chances, but against someone of Gian's quality, I'm not going to suggest taking 10/1.
Lukeman/Puha - If anything, we have less on Haupai than we do on Man Lok, so this is purely guesswork - we know Haupai's competent, we know Martin is alright, the line's saying the New Zealander has a one in three shot. This feels intuitively correct, or at least close enough to it that we don't want to consider betting the thing.
Price/Scutt - 6/1 on Connor seems harsh. But not by much. Not considering this one.

Humphries game just finished, that might have got exciting if Evans had have finished one of the numerous chances he had to take the third set, but he didn't, so we just put that one down to experience and move on. Back tomorrow evening with Tuesday thoughts.

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