Monday 18 December 2023

Day 5 bets

May as well get a little bit ahead of things with all the matchups decided by now, could probably do the Wednesday games as well but I'll save that for this evening perhaps.

White/Goto - Always a bit difficult to properly judge just how good an international qualifier actually is, but the line's set at 5/1. Looking at a full season I'd have put a fairer line at 7/1, but with somewhat limited data then maybe he's a bit better than the numbers suggest, even if my projection is correct, I don't think it offers anywhere near the value on Ian that we would really want before punting.
Edhouse/de Graaf - Got kind of a similar thing here on Jeffrey, but at least we have the previous experience of having seen him in multiple events over some time dating back to the BDO days and have a larger amount of general knowledge on him. My projection full season has him at about 25% - with Ritchie at 2/5, we're not really interested in such a small edge, particularly given that de Graaf's seasonal numbers seem to underestimate the level of player we know is in there a tad.
Brown/Krcmar - No such issues in this one between card holders, is a little bit odd that the guy that needed the PDPA qualifier is a favourite over the guy that isn't, but looking at things we kind of understand why, Brown is at 7/4 which we think might be underestimating him a wee bit based on full season data, which gives Krcmar just a 56% shot, but as we know Brown's form has dropped somewhat over the course of the year and it would be a bit of a pushy bet even if we think that number isn't an underestimation of Krcmar's real chances, and we do.
Wade/Campbell - Feel like there could be tiny value on Matt here. There's enough in his game, which works better on TV historically than on the floor, and he looked very nice in spots in the first round, particularly in the last set. Do we really want to push 11/4 though? I think it's close and worth considering if you are on 365 (everywhere else has it at 5/2, or even a bit shorter), Campbell year long projects at 35% or there abouts, I'm just reluctant to bet it against someone as solid as Wade, who is likely to hoover up any slow legs which Campbell might put out, and there were plenty of those in play against Ilagan.
Beaton/Nijman - This one seems fairly straight forward to me - I'm seeing Wessel as having around a 72% chance year long, and that doesn't seem to be affected by form in the slightest as well. Steve struggled with a young Dutch player last year, and will likely do the same again here, we have the edge to play, 0.25u 8/13 Nijman on Betfred, generally available 4/7 is just about a play, if it goes to 1/2 I'd start pumping the brakes though.
de Decker/Horvat - We have some data on Dragutin, but it's fairly limited and indicates inconsistency which we know is in his game. As such, I'm not going to read too much into it, particularly as it is saying that Horvat has a very strong chance in this one, and that may well still be the right side of the line, we like Mike's progression this year, but Dragutin's been competent enough on the Challenge Tour so I don't think saying he nicks this one in three times is unrealistic. With Horvat at 9/4, there's not the edge there, I can't really justify thinking that Horvat is that much more likely to win, he's always been a player that'd flash for a two to three leg spell, and that's not going to work in a first to five sets game unless de Decker screws something up, which while possible, seems unlikely.
Pietreczko/Suzuki - Not really going to look in depth at this one, Mikuru's numbers over the season are not good and not close to Ricardo's, she's not as good as Sherrock and Wattimena's not as good as Pietreczko, and we saw how relatively comfortable that one was. 8/1 really doesn't seem that ridiculous.
van Gerwen/Barry - Another one with a good chunk of data, so we can look straight at that. It says year long that Keane has a one in four chance. That drops to nearer one in five if we look just post Matchplay. The 15/2 that is available on Coralbrokes might be half tempting, but I'd really have wanted to see more from Barry in the opening game. He may not have looked great given his opponent's relatively lethargic pace, but I'd want to have seen something good to make me think he's near his top game and can realise that 22%, 23% chance that the stats show. So I'll pass.

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