Saturday 16 December 2023

Day 2 thoughts, day 3 bets

Alright, after the opening day aperitif, it feels like we're getting into the main course of the tournament with eight players being felled from the field today, it was a bit of a rough day on the betting front but let's go over what we saw:

- Sosing is who we thought he was. Lucky to qualify and out of his depth here. Evans didn't play well, but didn't need to, and it'll require minimal discussion as to what he can do in round two.
- By contrast, Scutt looked very good. Dropped just the three legs, finished six of nine in under fifteen, never really allowed Kciuk much of a chance. Sure, in round two he's still fucked, but it's a good sign.
- Did not expect Penhall to play anywhere near as well as he actually did. On throw he was more or less untouchable, Jules could do nothing in set one, nicked the second with a break in leg four but he would have had the darts in leg five anyway, then had a four leg spell of shitting the bed, which gave Darren the equation of hold twice and you win, and he leaves himself on 36 after 12 and 81 after 9, finishing both. Fair play.
- Lost opportunity for Menzies. First set seemed gifted, but after he got back into set two he really needs to put in a big last leg and ask the questions, and he didn't.
- Did not see much of the Hughes/Cameron game, but that looked like a really tricky watch.
- Barry showed a fair bit of maturity. Rivera looked alright, but I can't think that he's far, far too deliberate. What did annoy me is that he was even deliberate in retrieving his darts - if you think back to someone like Justin Pipe, he took his time but once he'd thrown he got his darts and got out of the way without delay, Rey didn't do that. Another awkward watch, but it is what it is.
- Williams seemed pretty decent, Muramatsu came into things a bit later into the game, but couldn't really get it done.
- Anderson was good as we expected. Whitlock was not good and the game went as we thought it would.

Onto day three, we'll cull another eight players, what do we think?

Evans/Adams - Simon's one of the players we don't have anything of real consequence on. I would guess that the 5/1 that we can get is in no way value, and there's not many players Ricky would face in a realistic matchup where I'd think "oh my god, 2/13, pile on" so let's move on.
Williams/Madhoo - Jim's 1/33. Next.
Campbell/Ilagan - Finally we've got a game that is worth analysing. Matt seems clearly better, but how much better is the question? We can get a tad longer than 1/2, and I don't hate the play - I am just concerned that we don't have the amount of data on Ilagan that makes me think that we can bet on the Canadian, and what data I have makes me think that the projections, which say bet Matt, might be underrating him somewhat. The line could probably shift towards Campbell somewhat, but I'm not feeling the prediction for some reason.
Cullen/Penhall - Darren looked good today, but even with that I'm not sure he's anywhere near as much of a live dog as he would need to be for us to consider taking the shot. He showed enough that I'm naturally not touching Joe at shorter than 1/3, but I've got to trust the numbers I have and they say not to punt on Penhall either.
Slevin/Hempel - I mean this one is how much you trust sample sizes and the ability of players to play at their best. A full season's worth of data says the line looks about right, maybe it's worth a tiny punt on Slevin. Cut out the first couple of months of the year however, and the data is saying Florian is likely the player worth looking at. In reality, we don't need to do either, so we won't.
Zonneveld/Webster - Line looks about right to me. Whatever sample I'm picking is giving Niels somewhere around a two in three shot at one end, and into the low 70% range at the other end. As such, I'm clearly not interested in any sort of Zonneveld 1/3 shenanigans, and even if there was no vig, I'm not sure there is enough of a clear and justifiable edge to take Darren going the other way, so I'll pass on this one.
Wattimena/Sherrock - We have such a limited data set on Fallon that it's hard to give any sort of serious rationale, other than to say the market giving her around a 30% shot feels about right. My gut says that Jermaine might be the side to angle on, but that's all it is and I don't bet on my gut.
Humphries/Evans - Lee's done his job. On recent form, say the last six months, a line of 9/1 doesn't seem unfair. He's good, but that's how much better Luke is.

So nothing on day 3, we're in a minor hole after yesterday but we're going to take our time and not do anything daft to try to get out of it.

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