Thursday 14 December 2023

Night one bets

Doets/Buntz - Looks to me like the market is overvaluing Stowe a fair bit based on what he did at the Grand Slam, he got on a nice run but he didn't really play that brilliantly outside of the game against Peter Wright. Kevin seems to be a much more solid player where the price we have available looks like steady enough value, and I'm seeing him at worst as being a 2-1 favourite. I'll give Stowe a bit of the benefit of the doubt that maybe he's improved rapidly and plays better on TV, and just go small, but Doets looks to be the clear side to play on - 0.1u Doets 8/11

Menzies/Rodriguez - Think we've got a play on Cameron here - Menzies is a strongly superior player who is awfully underrated, that I'm seeing as varying percentage points or two off of 75%. Rusty needed the PDPA quali for a reason. We can get longer than 1/2 so we'll take it - 0.25u Menzies 4/7

Whitlock/Nebrida - Paolo's not quite as bad a player as the markets suggest, looking at the fullest data available he should be nearer 11/2 than 17/2. Simon at 1/11 (!) is very much not accumulator safe, but I'm really not confident in Nebrida being able to realise what would be a very small edge, so there's no bets on this one.

Smith/winner of game one - I'm not seeing any conditional lines here, but what we can do is use the "Michael Smith stage of elimination" market which lists round two at 5/1 as some sort of proxy. This may be a bit of an underestimate of the chances that Doets has ever so slightly, which I'm seeing in the 20-25% range dependent on the exact sample size, increasing as we use more form based data. As the markets have the Doets/Buntz game fairly close, I don't see the line we'd get regardless of who it is moving an enormous amount, there might be a tiny bit of value, but I think I would need to see Kevin play a very good game to start to consider taking a small play.

Will get Saturday up after Friday is done, mainly because I want to see what prices Menzies (I hope it's Menzies anyway) and Whitlock get priced up at in their second round game and do it all at once - I'm only listing conditional thoughts on the Smith game given I'm not likely to be able to do too much on the fly tomorrow evening.

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