Monday 3 October 2022

Grand Prix Monday thoughts

Let's get into the Monday games. I can't see any doubling data which I want to be overly reliant on, so I'm just going to treat the games as roughly a best of 11 to 15 straight leg play event.

Rydz/Ratajski - Big chance for both here, but Ratajski appears to be moderately favoured with a bit above a 55% shot to take the match. He's 4/6, which isn't tempting, and even a vigless line at that point would not give enough edge to contemplate going on Callan either.

Dolan/Bunting - Another close game in the markets and an important one for both as they look to solidify their ranking positions, seems a similar game in terms of projections, Stephen coming in at around the 55% point. He is 4/5 which pretty much spot on, so we can't go with anything on this one.

Dobey/Humphries - Luke comes in as the shortest player so far, the market thinking he wins about two out of three games. That doesn't seem unfair on Chris' abilities, Luke's playing that much better that he ought to grab this around 70% of the time. As such, another spot on line.

van den Bergh/Chisnall - Key game for both, and both should be in some sort of confident form. The market can barely split them, giving Dimitri only the slightest of slight edges. I similarly can't separate them, it would take up to a world quarter final length of game before van den Bergh gets a 51% edge in my projections.

Clayton/van Duijvenbode - Highlight tie of the round for many, myself included, and maybe the one which is the closest to a bet so far. I've got Dirk as only a slight dog, 48% or so, as such 13/10 isn't too bad a punt, that equates to a 5% edge. Clayton seemingly having a slightly better doubling percentage, and seemingly always being a little bit underrated in the stats I have, is enough for me to say to not bet.

Wright/Huybrechts - Peter's the shortest price of the day, and it seems fair enough. Kim's been playing OK, but Peter's that much better - I'd say somewhere in the 75% to 80% favourite range. Most lines say 2/7 or 3/10, so yeah, we're struggling to find any value.

van Gerwen/Anderson - This would have been a tasty one on paper a few years ago, now maybe not so much, Gary needs ranking money badly and has got the worst possible draw. Anderson's stats aren't actually that far apart from MvG's, and the projections I have put them really close, normally 2/1 would be a snap call, but I can't realistically recommend a play given Anderson's enormous lack of ranking play (he only has about 40% of the legs played this season compared to van Gerwen), especially in more recent times. I can't even look at unranked play as some kind of saviour given how massively outclassed he was in the Premier League and mediocre scoring, one match vs Wright excepted, in other unranked events.

de Sousa/Lewis - We return to another tight game. Adie's improved of late and de Sousa has had a bit of a rough 2022, although more recent months appear a bit better. Lewis looks to be a live enough dog at the 45% point, but the best we can get is Ladbrokes not quite hitting 6/4, so I think we can avoid this one.

As such, no bets, will get Tuesday up as soon as I can.

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