Friday 14 October 2022

Gib bets

There's frankly not a huge amount here. We do actually have oddschecker and lines for everything, including the qualifiers (oddschecker isn't showing Dobey/Duo, but 365 is saying Dobey 1/50 lol so maybe nobody else is even offering a line), which'll speed things up. Galliano being 3/1 seems alright. Williams correctly a small favourite. Vilerio might be a little too long at 11/2 against an indifferent Lowe, but Jason's not been playing badly, just not getting results, and I wouldn't want to try to quantify what a correct line would be here. Neyens isn't great but Negrette is at least showing what he can do on the Development Tour, and it won't threaten Kenny. Hewitt is better, but Beaton surely closes this out at least 70% of the time, and we'd need Justin to win more than that to start thinking about a bet in all reality.

0.25u Edhouse 8/11 though, only there on Ladbrokes/Coral, but 4/6 and maybe 8/13 are widely available, which seem more than enough where we think someone wins 70% of the time.

0.25u Plaisier 5/6 on Hills, can also get 4/5 in a lot of places. As in the preview we think he's a near 2-1 favourite, so a line that represents 55% for break even looks value. 4/6 is probably the point where we start saying no.

Kantele looks priced as an accurate enough dog. Rowby as a small favourite is fine. Joyce is doing enough despite currently being outside the world spots that we can't seriously think about 9/2 on Parody, although maybe that does underestimate Dyson's chances slightly. Bunting is undervalued at 5/6 against Gurney, but it is not quite enough to consider a bet, if it ticks to 10/11 I would probably take a small stab, standard bet if we got evens. May throw out that as an option on the exchange. Dobey line is lol, Rock should probably be a little shorter, but not much, Meikle isn't bad after all. Schindler is maybe slightly undervalued, but it's by even less much than Rock is. Mensur may be ever so slightly overvalued, but nothing that we can consider betting. Finally Clemens is more or less correctly priced, not being able to get 1/2 against Hunt, we need a lot longer than that to start firing.

So just the two bets, fading Hendo and Smith in the afternoon session.

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