Sunday 16 October 2022

Gib round 3

Another nice small pick up with Rock getting the job done, Edhouse couldn't quite do the same but he wasn't given too many chances outside of what he took, just the one leg where he had a couple of darts to finish 86. Oh well, it's still green for the day, so let's have a quick look at the round three games.

Humphries/Plaisier - This is an enormous game, Plaisier is in the Euro Championships with a win (over Ratajski) which barring a freak Suljovic or Joyce bink will finalise the field, shame he hits the number one seed. This is priced at Humphries winning around 75% of the time. That is maybe slightly harsh, but I'm only seeing 30% chances for Wesley so I'm not sensing enough edge to take the underdog here.

Searle/Wright - This would be a decent spot for Ryan to pick up a bit of confidence against Wright, who wasn't really tested in his opening game and could be a little bit slow to start potentially. The bookies don't really agree, putting the line around 65/35 in favour of the world champion. Similar to the previous game, I think that undervalues Searle a touch, but I'm only getting him slightly over 40%, which if he had been getting results or did have a really impressive win I might start to think about it, but he isn't, and while he was OK in round two, it wasn't enough to make me stop and think.

Rock/Clayton - Josh looked solid against Smith and probably had another gear to move into if needed, which he didn't, while Jonny got off to a quick start against Bunting and didn't need to do a great deal to get home after that. Market is thinking Clayton a bit better than 60/40, I'm seeing a flip. 0.25u Rock 8/5 on Hills, the 6/4 in a few places also looks OK, 11/8 might be pushing it.

Cross/Joyce - Rob comfortably dispatched Rusty in the first game of the session, while Joyce nicked one against Noppert and is one of two wildcards who can force his way into the Euro field with a miracle run. Looks about 60/40 to Cross for me, and Joyce is 6/4. Anyway...

van Gerwen/de Sousa - Michael continues to look like the best player in the world and needed most of his best game against Beaton who really only had one mediocre leg which ended up being the decisive break. Jose continues to improve, the first leg yesterday was basically a dumpster fire but was faultless after that. Looks 65/35 in favour of MvG to me, the market is favouring him ever so slightly more, but we need better than just over 2/1 on the Portuguese number one before we can start to think about betting on him.

Aspinall/van Duijvenbode - This one should be fun, two players here who needed every leg - Dirk leaving Lowe sat on tops for the match, while Aspinall came from 5-0 down somehow against van der Voort. Bookies have it evens, I'm thinking there is a solid enough edge on Dirk to play here. 0.25u van Duijvenbode 10/11 on Hills, most other places are a fair bit shorter, Nathan's been playing well of late but I'm seeing Dirk at 62%, and Dirk hasn't exactly been struggling.

Suljovic/Clemens - Two unseeded players here, Mensur eliminated Gerwyn Price by taking advantage of a couple of sloppy legs, while Dimitri wasn't really at the races against Clemens who dropped one leg without really being in top form himself. This appears very tight to me, the market gives Suljovic the tiniest of edges, I see Clemens having the tiniest of edges, but 6/5 on Coralbrokes isn't quite enough to fire on.

Heta/Cullen - Last game of the day, Damon didn't look brilliant against Dobey but did enough to get the job done, Cullen was fine against Ritchie outside of a couple of bad legs where he got broken. Seems like a solid edge for Damon here around the 65/35 region. Maybe I underestimate Cullen, but it's not enough not to bet. 0.25u Heta evs on Boyles, widely available 10/11 is also perfectly fine.

So three plays, I wasn't expecting that many, but we're on three quality players here which should give us some value.

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