Saturday 15 October 2022

Gib round 2

Safe day one, both bets in the bank - Hendo ran Edhouse close, Smith not so much, very short on time this morning so just going to go through matches real quickly:

Cross/Rusty looks a perfect line.
Searle seems a touch undervalued vs O'Connor (who looked decent) but not enough to recommend a play.
Similar story with Plaisier, not quite enough. Chizzy coming into form doesn't help the cause.
Dirk probably shouldn't be quite as short as he is vs Lowe, but it's only minor.
Joyce is kind of tempting at 7/4 in a couple of places, I'm getting approaching 45% chances against Noppie, but he didn't look good yesterday and he is under a lot of pressure to get a result here, so will pass it up.
de Sousa/Rowby looks a good line.
Heta seems real close to a good play? I'm only getting Dobey at 30%, which seems kind of low and I thought it would be higher, 8/13 feels like it should be a bet, Dobey didn't look fantastic yesterday but didn't need to. Hmm, will pass but probably regret it.
Being able to get greater than 2/1 on van der Voort against Aspinall seems fine. I've got around 35%, so maybe slightly long, but close enough, more recent form probably pops him under one in three
0.25u Rock 13/8 vs Smith, this is a pure coinflip, they are extremely evenly matched. 13/8 is easily enough on 365 to play.
Humphries correctly extremely short vs Neyens who showed nothing to make us consider him yesterday.
Hey, Galliano won! Great job. Now you face Wright who is 1/100 in places, lol.
Bunting seems real close to a play at the 2/1 you can get on 365. Looked very good against Gurney (they were actually exactly tied in the FRH rankings before the game which I've never seen before that high up the rankings), think he's very close to 40% against Clayton. Will pass it, model seems to underestimate. Jonny slightly on a consistent basis and there's not quite enough edge in the first place.
Beaton got a controversial bye yesterday, probably isn't quite so much of a dog against van Gerwen as the 6/1 you can get would suggest, but he's still a substantial dog and MvG is playing great, so an easy pass.
Didn't really see a 6-0 for Suljovic coming, but it is what it is. Price is going to be a tougher task, and the 3/1 you can get on Suljovic doesn't seem unfair at all.
Clemens might be ever so slightly undervalued against Dimitri, I'm seeing a touch better than a one in three chance, whereas the oddsmakers are generally giving better than 2/1 but not quite 5/2, there isn't the edge to play but Dimi doesn't seem acca safe, let's put it that way.
The model is really, really loving Edhouse, and puts him at 48% against Cullen! There is a pretty big consistency problem in Ritchie's game with his value being towards the high end of what we typically see, but I think the price we can see is worth a stab, albeit small given that consistency and given that Joe is another player the model typically undervalues. 0.1u Edhouse 7/4.

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