Thursday 13 October 2022

Euro Tour ending for another season

Sigh, another two withdrawals, which means we get a massive SIX Gibraltan qualifiers. No idea who they are yet, but will come onto that later. Grats to Michael for binking another Grand Prix, Nathan Aspinall making a great comeback but ultimately falling just short. Still, he books his Grand Slam spot (with van Gerwen's bink also securing a place for Luke Humphries), and it does this to the FRH rankings (note that this includes Gibraltar mincashes already, if you want it pre then bump Ratajski above Chisnall):

1 Peter Wright
2 Michael van Gerwen (UP 1)
3 Gerwyn Price (DOWN 1)
4 Michael Smith
5 Danny Noppert
6 Rob Cross
7 Luke Humphries
8 Nathan Aspinall (UP 3)
9 Jonny Clayton (DOWN 1)
10 James Wade (DOWN 1)
11 Dimitri van den Bergh (UP 1)
12 Jose de Sousa (DOWN 2)
13 Joe Cullen
14 Ryan Searle
15 Dirk van Duijvenbode
16 Damon Heta
17 Dave Chisnall
18 Krzysztof Ratajski
19 Gary Anderson
20 Callan Rydz

Big mover is obviously Aspinall, getting back into the top 10, but van Gerwen getting into the top 2 despite not having a world title counting towards his scoring is fairly epic. That said, Price's bink there is counting for less than 70k points in the scoring right now. Cross and Humphries are separated by just 2 points! Dobey's quarter gets him up to 22nd, which will be 21st assuming he beats a home qualifier tomorrow (which he should), a quarter can see him into the top 20. Razma is into the top 30, while Lukeman is just a couple of spots outside of the top 32 now, but will lose to many just around him with all of van der Voort, Suljovic and Rodriguez in Gibraltar.

So, Gibraltar - the big thing is who is going to get through to the European Championship. Dobey was the last man out right now, but will jump Rydz assuming he doesn't fuck it up against a home qualifier, which he shouldn't. Plaisier is still live, getting Jeff Smith and then Dave Chisnall, will need to beat those two as a minimum and probably another player given that we would expect Dobey to climb. van der Voort is close to the cutoff - in right now, but drawing Schindler is not what he would have wanted. Meikle's got an extra £500 of a buffer, but has drawn Rock, who should be absolutely safe with a win.

Let's quickly go through the games we know - won't mention Neyens, Vandenbogaerde, Joyce, Beaton, Lowe or Dobey as they've all drawn qualifiers and would think that apart from Neyens they will all be comfortable. Maybe Justin Hewitt or Dyson Parody can show up and make some of them interesting, but these guys all seem solid enough, although Lowe hasn't been getting results and it is a huge game for Beaton who's looking to stay the right side of the worlds cutoff, while Joyce and Mario are just outside themselves. Smith/Plaisier should be alright, think Wesley has been playing great all year and should be very close to a 2-1 favourite. Williams/O'Connor isn't a bad game, ought to be tight, favouring Jim but only 55/45. Meikle/Rock is a good game between younger players but the upcoming world youth finalist should be a prohibitive 3-1 level of favourite. Bunting/Gurney is a decent one between players who had good Grand Prix showings, don't find it too hard to split them, Bunting looks 60/40. Kantele/Rodriguez is hard to call because we've got fairly limited data on Marko, would think Rusty will be at least winning 70% of the time, but Kantele does have his moments so will probably be cautious. The other Rodriguez against Barry is another clash of younger players who will be looking to be in and around the top 32 this time next year, think Rowby has a very small edge, closer to 55% than a flip. Schindler/van der Voort is probably the pick of the round, Schindler's been playing the better stuff all year and should price approaching 2-1 on. Would guess it may be priced closer in real life, that said as mentioned it's a critical game for Vincent who desperately needs a win. Brown/Suljovic is interesting, we've not mentioned Mensur a great deal this season as he's slipped down the rankings and outside of majors, while if it wasn't for Keegan binking a Pro Tour, I doubt we'd be talking much about him either. Mensur looks slightly better than 55/45, should be tight. Clemens/Hunt looks a mismatch, Adam's had a real bad year and is in real danger of losing his card, Gabriel is taking this 70% of the time. Finally we've got Edhouse and Henderson, Edhouse is comfortably within the world qualification spots right now, Hendo not so much, and I find it hard to call him getting more added here as it looks like another 70/30, obviously in Ritchie's favour.

Will put up some bets in the morning I would think.

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