Sunday 30 October 2022

Yeah, that was a short post, but what can you do

Wasn't expecting the quarters to start until 45 minutes later than they actually did, whoops. Still, nothing of value was lost, and the upshot is we're going to have a second (no, Joe, the Masters doesn't count) new major champion of the season. I called the most likely to do so at the start of the season as Smith, Cullen, Humphries, Chisnall and Ratajski, and, well, one of them is there, as we've got Michael against Dirk and then Chris Dobey against Ross Smith, who did some impressive running off of legs to turn it around from 3-8 against Wright, but was helped a bit. This does have Grand Slam implications as one of Dobey or Smith will get a spot, whoever wins - Smith (Michael) and van Duijvenbode are already there, but this is going to push the number of spots from the Players Championship series down to one, so bad luck Dolan who was currently there. Cross looks pretty strongly favoured having two in the bank and having a ranking advantage over everyone else, so it's going to take someone with one bink to go back to back, and other than Rock (who could steal the spot and give the Dev Tour spot to Keane Barry) and maybe Adrian Lewis, it's hard to say who can win two of them. Dimitri I suppose could?

In the semis, it's going to be incredibly hard to call a winner. Dirk maybe has the slightest of edges over Smith and looked really good against Noppert, call it 52/48 for DvD. Dobey maybe should be a small underdog against Smith, maybe 45/55. That said, Dobey played fantastically well hitting five four visit kills out of ten legs won, so can we call that one a flip as well?

In terms of a final, DvD ought to be a bit shorter than 1/2 against Dobey. Maybe a bit longer against Ross, calling it 68% and 63%. Michael ought to win the Smith derby 61% of the time, and Dobey 66% of the time. So it's favouring the top half winner around about the same amount whoever it is. The market in the semi is giving Smith the small edge, can't see a line for the other semi yet, but given we've seen no value anywhere, I doubt we do. I've indicated where I think the line should be, so if something's way out of kilter and we don't see Dobey at around 5/4, or Smith around 4/5, you know where to go.

It looks as if Greaves has nearly done enough to get to Ally Pally, having got up to seven straight binks and now being at the stage where she just needs to match Sherrock's result to get there. Fallon would then miss out, but hold on, didn't the PDC leave a qualifier open? Call it the "marketing department needs this" qualifier? But never mind that, PRAKASH FUCKING JIWA HAS QUALIFIED!

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