Friday, 3 March 2017

UK Open Round 3

Holy crap, MvG withdrew. Which opens up the tournament to the likes of Lewis, Wade... oops.

Finished up 6-10 on rounds 1/2, for a loss of 1.15 units. Nothing much to say, most of the losses were on the quarter unit plays which prevented a bigger downswing, very surprised that Lerchbacher didn't get through after his form at the weekend, and Jenkins going out and not looking close while doing so also seems like a shock. Nice for Reyes to get the day off, although I think we'd all have liked to see a rerun of his worlds match.

So on to round 3, oddschecker is offering hugely incomplete coverage, it's now up to a race to 10 so there's a bit less variance coming up, have opened up three bookies and grabbing the best line where possible:

William O'Connor - Mick Todd: Nothing, O'Connor seems slightly better so ignoring this
Darren Webster - Ronnie Baxter: 1u Webster 2/5, cannot see Baxter rolling back the years over this distance
Alan Norris - Yordi Meeuwisse: Best we can get is 1/4 Norris which seems too short
Peter Wright - James Richardson: Wright's double digits odds on which isn't worth it
Kim Huybrechts - Brian Woods: 1u Huybrechts 1/6, don't really believe in Woods and Huybrechts seems in form
Mervyn King - Alan Tabern: King should ease through but we're not offered the right price
Ross Twell - Mark Webster: Not sure Webster doesn't randomly choke rarely enough to get on at 2/9
Robert Thornton - Joe Cullen: 1u Cullen 10/11, in a pick em Cullen's stats are better. Thornton wasn't tested in round 2 and this is a big step up in class
Kyle Anderson - Jermaine Wattimena: 1u Anderson 1/2, Wattimena isn't that impressive and Anderson's been great the last six months
Jamie Caven - Dave Chisnall: Chizzy's rightly heavily odds on, no value here
Chris Dobey - Kevin Painter: 1u Dobey 8/13, Painter isn't that far off in a short format but this is long enough that Dobey's class will show
Chris Quantock - Simon Whitlock: Whitlock moves on but is too short
Alex Roy - Daryl Gurney: 1/5 Gurney's tempting but will leave it
Jonny Clayton - Jelle Klaasen: 0.25u Clayton 3/1, Klaasen wasn't great yesterday so this may be just about live
Martin Lukeman - Rob Hewson: Not enough time to think about players with limited information
John Michael - Brendan Dolan: Dolan rightly a favourite, it's close to a bet but Michael's too much of a wildcard when we can't even get 1/2
Gary Anderson - Paul Hogan: Intriguing match but Ando's too short and I don't think Hogan pulls the upset enough to punt
Matthew Dennant - Benito van de Pas: Best price on Benito is 1/8? Really?
Justin Pipe - Gerwyn Price: 1u Price 8/11, Pipe's not got good enough figures to be able to run Price close enough
Mick McGowan - Ryan Searle: Don't know enough on Searle to bet here. McGowan's steady but that's it, he's too big of a favourite to go with the known quantity
Vincent van de Voort - Ronny Huybrechts: 0.5u Huybrechts 7/4, form player is a good price
Dave Pallett - Steve Beaton: Beaton about a 65% favourite seems fine
Wayne Jones - Kirk Shepherd: Tempted by a Shepherd bet, but will avoid
Andrew Gilding - Ted Evetts: Evetts is really solid but it's priced as a flip which seems too much
Ron Meulenkamp - Ricky Evans: Lot of variance here and there's no big price either way, so will not bet
Adrian Lewis - James Wade: Bookies have Lewis a small favourite, if anything the value is on Wade but there's not enough of it
Christian Kist - Dirk van Duijvenbode: Kist seems rightly priced at about 8/15 or so, not rushing to bet on either at those odds
Ian White - Paul Barham: 1u White 1/6, should be far too solid
John Henderson - Michael Smith: Smith seems the form guy, but cocks it up too much to bet
Rob Cross - Johnny Haines: Can't even get 1/2 on Cross, he should win but you never know
Raymond van Barneveld - Barrie Bates: 2006 all over again, Barney too short

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