Sunday 5 March 2017

UK Open Quarter Finals

Looks like Wright is going to have to do it the hard way. Barney's easily the worst person he could draw, this does open up potential each way coups, Whitlock and Huybrechts at 9/1 and 10/1 respectively might be worth a play and hope they don't draw the Wright/Barney winner, not sure about anyone else at current market value.

The lines for today's games all seem very even outside of the main event with Huybrechts being the shortest priced player at 8/11, while the lines say Wright wins two times out of three. Looking at the last one first, we did analyse this for the Premier League preview article, which had Wright as the favourite - but not by much. Factoring in more data than when I looked at that one, and I think it becomes closer. That said, Wright's started better in the Premier League, and his results to get here look a lot more convincing than Barney's, who's had to work to beat people who were last relevant when Anderson was still with the BDO. Hard not to back Barney at nearly 2/1, but I'll hold off on this.

First up is Huybrechts at 8/11 against Norris at 13/10, I think that Kim has had the scare against Cullen and should be stronger for it, and he was incredible against Evetts, Norris hasn't been truly tested by any of Meeuwisse, van de Pas or Smith. The figures on both have Huybrechts as a solidly better player, mainly through hitting a lot more twelve darters than Norris does, this is enough for me to fire 1u Huybrechts 8/11.

Game two is Price at 11/10 against White at 5/6. White's not had a real tough game so far, a lineup of Barham, Shepherd and Lukeman is not that difficult and he's dropped 12 legs so far. Price has dropped fifteen against Pipe, Pallett and Hogan, which is considerably more difficult. On the figures I have, White is a lot better on hitting 12 darters, at 12% as opposed to 7%, but Price has more in fifteen or less (including those killed in 12), making it only a percentage point different as to how often each player should hold their throw. Very even contest so I'll pass this one.

Last game to look at is Whitlock against Gurney, Gurney's lost just 10 legs in getting through Roy, Webster and van der Voort, Whitlock was untouchable against Quantock but has been pushed a bit more by van Duijvenbode and O'Connor. Whitlock has the form - winning on the floor while Gurney needed to start in round 2, on the information I have Whitlock is hitting more twelve darters, more fifteen darters, Gurney has a small edge in having less won legs go past 18 darts, but Whitlock holds 75% of the time to Gurney's 67%, which is a decent edge. Is it enough to bet at 4/5? Just about I think, 1u Whitlock 4/5.

Should be able to look into the semi finals in a bit of depth, the final itself given the quick turn around time would just be an indication of a bet and nothing else.

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