Sunday, 5 March 2017

UK Open Semi Finals

Oh joy, another two full unit plays going down in deciding legs to go with the Klaasen one from yesterday, that hurts a bunch and puts me down overall. Some cracking quality games though, Wright/van Barneveld was unbelievable.

The draw gives us Wright/Gurney and Norris/Price. Gurney's been installed as about a 5/1 dog, and I'm not looking to play on this one. Wright holds throw from the stats I have over 78% of the time compared to Gurney's 61%, which is a big gap. Gurney breaking and holding in any given 2 leg spell is only a 13% shot, and he needs to do that and have Wright not do that - only problem is Wright would break/hold 30% of the time. Seems too tough an ask.

Norris/Price has Norris about a 55/45 favourite. Both of them have 84 legs won in my database - same amount of 12 darters, but Norris has won 49 legs in fifteen darts compared to 39 for Price, the other ten legs going eighteen darts seven times, with the rest going over 18. At the first break, Norris should lead on these stats over half the time with about a quarter of them being level, based on Norris holding 11% more often than Price would. It's going to need Price to continue his very solid checkout percentages to keep this one as tight as the bookies suggest, and I think these numbers justify 1u Norris 8/11.

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