Saturday 4 March 2017

UK Open Round 4

Dropped another tiny fraction of a unit on round 3, very surprised that Baxter was able to pull through. Round 4 coming up, some more interesting matchups:

Alan Tabern - John Michael: Close to even money this one, Tabern came through Robertson, Carroll and King, while Michael beat Hudson and Dolan, both in deciding legs. I think Michael has the edge here in terms of limited stats I have on each of them, and he's probably been playing more frequently at a higher level, so I'll lean for 0.5u Michael 10/11

Gerwyn Price - Dave Pallett: Price came through Pipe fairly comfortably and is installed as a 2-1 favourite against Pallett, who saw off Andy Jenkins and then Beaton. The numbers I have on Pallett are actually really good, and Beaton isn't that much worse than Price is. Question is whether the price makes it worth the bet, I'll go for yes: 0.5u Pallett 7/4

Ronnie Baxter - Willie O'Connor: Baxter rolled back the years beating Rowley, North and Webster, while O'Connor beat Lennon and Todd convincingly, nearly hitting a nine in the process. Those scorelines tempt me towards him given he's only a tiny favourite, but I have such limited information on Baxter and he's already beaten a better player than O'Connor this weekend, so will leave it alone.

Mark Webster - Daryl Gurney: A World Championship rematch with Gurney being installed as a bit more than a 60% favourite - that match was only 4-3, and while Gurney beat Palmer and Roy, Webster beat Bunting then came from behind against Twell to edge it. Gurney's numbers however are solidly better, so I'll agree with the bookied and think he has a decent but not prohibitive edge.

Chris Dobey - Martin Lukeman: Dobey's much more experienced than Lukeman, who survived infinite match darts in round 3 to win 10-9, he should advance comfortably but not really knowing too much about Lukeman I don't want to punt when the best we can get has Dobey as greater than a 75% favourite.

Kim Huybrechts - Ted Evetts: Kim had issues with Woods, only getting through 10-8, while Evetts beat Milford and then Gilding with a convincing 10-5 scoreline. Huybrechts' stats are a lot better than Evetts over a much bigger sample, but we are getting a big price on Ted and I think he has played a big stage enough that he can nick this enough to be worth the shot: 0.25u Evetts 7/2

Ryan Searle - Rob Cross: I have no figures on either, Cross is a small favourite, while Searle is fairly local so may have some support. Cross has done a bit better on the tour this season and clearly likes the venue, but I don't know enough on Searle to punt.

Benito van de Pas - Alan Norris: Benito's only a small favourite, both had fairly easy passes through round 3 in comfortable matchups, I think this will be tight and Benito's overall better play may just outdo Norris having the better recent form.

Jelle Klaasen - Vincent van der Voort: Surprised that Vincent was able to advance that easily over Ronny Huybrechts, while Klaasen had a bit of a struggle with Jonny Clayton before getting through 10-7. I think Klaasen should be able to lock in to what is a great opportunity to go very deep, and the odds look OK given Vincent's poor form - 1u Klaasen 5/11

Joe Cullen - Cristo Reyes: Disappointed that this isn't on either televised board (think board 2 is streamed?), as this is an even game between developing players in form. Reyes got a bye while Cullen dismantled Thornton, should be close and the odds reflect that.

Kirk Shepherd - Ian White: Shepherd's been playing at a good level, but this is a bit of a step up, White easily dealt with Barham while Shepherd took out Barilli then Wayne Jones in a close battle. White's nearly 4/1 on which doesn't seem worth a bet, and I don't know if Kirk steps up enough to bet the dog.

Jermaine Wattimena - Michael Smith: Smith pulled away from Henderson after the game was even early, while Jermaine surprised a few by taking out Kyle Anderson. Smith seems in the best form over the last few weeks that he's been in for a while, but if Wattimena keeps this up he can probably snipe the win enough that the 25% chance the odds indicate seems correct.

Paul Hogan - Adrian Lewis: Lewis looked a bit sluggish in beating Wade but did enough to get through, while Hogan, in being a Riley's qualifier to beat Gary Anderson, caused the biggest story in the UK Open since a Riley's qualifier beat Gary Anderson. I think Lewis' numbers are better than his form suggests, Hogan is not completely dead obviously, but Lewis is a big favourite.

Simon Whitlock - Dirk van Duijvenbode: Whitlock looked really good in professionally clearing out Chris Quantock and has generally been in the best form he has for years in 2017. van Duijvenbode took out Kellett then was fairly comfortable in a 10-5 win over Kist. Whitlock should advance.

Raymond van Barneveld - Ron Meulenkamp: Barney didn't really kick into top gear but was able to get through a scrappy game against Barrie Bates, while Meulenkamp beat Royden Lam then both Lee and Ricky Evans. Meulenkamp's a 6/1 dog, and I have enough of a sample size on him to think that he won't even get there that much: 2u van Barneveld 1/6

Dave Chisnall - Peter Wright: The new favourite got what is one of the hardest draws he could get against Chizzy, but is a 2/1 favourite. This looks pretty close to correct looking at the stats and extrapolating the match, and I think that while Wright played like a god on Thursday, it's countered by the pressure of now being a favourite and also that Chisnall has a small head to head lead, so will leave it alone.

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