Monday, 27 March 2017

He's consistently inconsistent

Thinking about the comments on Huybrechts in the previous post, I've had a quick thought about how to factor consistency using the stats that I have available. It seems quite easy to do - multiply the number of legs won by 501, total up the number of visits in winning legs, bang, a figure for average in winning legs.

Of course, my stats don't differentiate between a 13 darter and a 15 darter, but I don't see that as an issue, that you kill in 1 dart in the fifth visit just means that your skill is in giving yourself more time. A fifteen is a fifteen - if it's hitting tops on a third dart after missing two, it reflects that you've scored heavily earlier. If you check out 170 to do so, it reflects your finishing prowess. It should even out.

The losing average figure has one issue - it can be inflated or deflated by your opponent to an extent. If you leave 81 after nine darts and your opponent goes out, that's nice. If you end up drakking about on the doubles because your opponent is doing the same, then it's not, but that has a solution - hit your doubles.

So what does the table look like? Let's take the top 32 in the world as of right now (official, not mine), and sort by losing average minus winning average. The higher this figure is, the more it should show that you're keeping good enough order consistently when you're not winning. In theory. Let's go:

1 Phil Taylor -0.21
2 Peter Wright -0.46
3 James Wade -1.24
4 Gary Anderson -1.25
5 Jamie Caven -1.37
6 Benito van de Pas -1.42
7 Dave Chisnall -1.53
8 Mark Webster -2.13
9 Raymond van Barneveld -2.14
10 Daryl Gurney -2.36
11 Steve Beaton -2.47
12 Ian White -2.58
13 Cristo Reyes -2.60
14 Mensur Suljovic -2.70
15 Simon Whitlock -3.04
16 Gerwyn Price -3.06
17 Stephen Bunting -3.22
18 Michael Smith -3.51
19 Michael van Gerwen -3.87
20 Terry Jenkins -3.89
21 Justin Pipe -3.91
22 Joe Cullen -4.20
23 Jelle Klaasen -4.24
24 Adrian Lewis -4.34
25 Brendan Dolan -4.52
26 Mervyn King -4.82
27 Darren Webster -5.10
28 Alan Norris -7.03
29 Robert Thornton -7.99
30 Vincent van der Voort -8.68
31 Kim Huybrechts -8.68
32 Kyle Anderson -8.78

There's some interesting figures there, but it does seem to have some correlation with the rankings as a whole - of the worlds top eight, six of them are in this top ten list. It also does seem to look in general like you have streakier players towards the bottom, and more consistent players towards the top - Taylor, Wright and Wade would be in most people's lists as for the most consistent on the circuit. Let's quickly knock some outliers out - Caven is likely so high as his average in winning legs is horrible at below 86 - he's consistent, but in a bad way. van Gerwen is likely so low because his average in winning legs is over 101 - you can't physically score that in a losing leg unless the other guy goes out in 15 on throw or 12 to break. He has the second highest losing average in my database (less than half a point behind Anderson, minimum 10 legs won), but that can't counteract being the highest in terms of winning average by a clear 2 points.

Thoughts on the methodology?

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