Thursday, 28 February 2019

UK Open bets

Right, what I will do is post up bets for round 1, and any round 2-3 matches that have already been determined. Anything else I add for rounds 2-3 I'll pop up in a separate post that I'll update live in running as I'm watching and feeding the data into the master computer. Then when we're down to the last 64, I'll pop up a new post again for that round after the draw's been made.

First round games:

McGeeney/Pallett - nothing here. I'm seeing close to even, slightly in Mark's favour, so 5/4 Pallett doesn't appeal.
Newton/Menzies - no bet. Menzies I'd have thought would be appealing given Newton's poor showing at the worlds, but they weren't too far off on the averages at Q-School and 8/13 is a bit too short for Cameron here.
Lynn/Rasztovits - 0.25u Lynn 11/8, obviously he has course and distance, but over limited data he outperformed Michael last year, and they were close on the averages in their respective Q-Schools, so taking the odds against punt looks good.
Hughes/Rydz - 0.1u Rydz 5/1, this is based purely on potential, Rydz has been playing very well these last couple of events and while Hughes is a formidable opponent, 5/1's a big number best of 11.
Nilsson/Razma - no bet, the 12 month sample favours Razma enough to think about 4/6, and he did win a card while Nilsson didn't, but Nilsson played respectably enough to make me think the line's close to correct.
van Duivenbode/Evetts - no bet, Evetts is about 70/30 based on what little I know of Mike, so a 2/5 line isn't inspiring.
Taylor/Labanauskas - 0.25u Taylor 6/4, I'm seeing this as evens on the 12 month sample I have and Scott's showed moments of form in 2019, so 6/4, why not. He's very high up on the Challenge Tour average table at least.
Whitehead/Burgoine - no bet, nothing of note to see how Burgoine's playing, so while you can't feel confident in someone who didn't even try Q-School, it's 4/11 on Conan which is a bit too short over a quick match against anyone who's managed to come through a qualifier.
Fox/Jenkins - 0.25u Fox 5/2, this is purely speculative based off who Fox came through to get here and Jenkins not impressing in any figures I've seen for quite some time now. If he can beat Hogan he can beat Jenkins.
Murnan/Frost - 0.25u Murnan 8/13, Frost really wasn't close to getting his card back and hasn't put up decent stats in a long time.
Portela/Bates - 0.25u Portela 3/4, this'd look like a bet even at the typical 4/6 line but Betfair's got this closer than that, Diogo's significantly better than Barrie is at this point in time.
Huckvale/Barilli - no bet, might lean towards Barilli based on a greater body of work throughout his career but the figures in the Challenge Tour seem close.
Nentjes/Evans - 0.25u Nentjes 8/11, Evans has performed solidly enough in 2019 with a mid 80's average, but Geert is playing at a higher level and ought to bring this home the three times in five that we need here.
Harris/Davey - no bet, 1/3's too short for Cody.
Shepherd/Worsley - no bet, always nice to get a tour card v tour card match here where we have stats, and they lean Kirk in the high 50% range, so 8/11, no thanks.
de Sousa/Raman - 0.25u de Sousa 3/5, I don't know much about Raman but Jose's extremely competent and winning this two times out of three ought to be a formality.
Derry/Budgen - no bet, Budgen's 6/4 and is putting up a low 80's average in Q-School/Challenge Tour games, which with Derry not being overly impressive so far this year makes this a line to avoid.
van der Meer/Dootson - 0.25u van der Meer 10/11, model hates Dootson, and with good reason, even trimming down to just 2019 where he's played a bit better Vincent should still be a much, much stronger favourite than this.
Clark/Zonneveld - 0.25u Clark 8/13, Niels is being outplayed quite heavily by the veteran so far in his PDC career, experience and general better play makes this bet look good.
Cole/Barnard - 0.25u Cole 13/10, this is purely based on Barnard's awful form, that he was apparently on Twitter a bit ago (per the always excellent Weekly Dartscast) seeking a sports psychologist makes you wonder, Jarred's done enough this year to go with it.
Cullen/Robinson - no bet. Stats I have favour Cullen a little bit, the market's about 60/40.
Bunse/Michael - 0.25u Bunse 11/8, my figures favour Bunse by more than 60%, there's not huge sample but Michael has not been finishing the legs he's won quickly whatsoever.
Atkins/Bain - no bet, the stats I have put this as fairly close, but Atkins has dropped off a bit by the looks of things so leaving it alone.
Kantele/Lacey - I've got nowt on Lacey, so it's just gauging Marko against a typical Rileys qualifier, I think he should win but nowhere near enough to consider poking at a 70/30 market.
Browning/Harris - Harris is a strong favourite, I don't know much about either but just looking at their dartsdatabase records I think it's probably justifiable given Lee's played more often at a higher level.
Thoburn/Dennant - while Matt's scored brilliantly on the Challenge Tour weekend, I can't really bet on him at 1/5 against anyone in this field.
Gray/McFarlane - 0.1u McFarlane 7/2, this looks like an OK punt given that McFarlane is solidly in the mid 80's on DartConnect stats and Adrian hasn't been inspiring so far.
Day/Kuivenhoven - line looks OK with Kuivenhoven being around 65/35, my info on Day is limited but I've got to think he's a bit better than what he's shown.
Wilkinson/Meeuwisse - finding it very hard to split these two. Neither can the bookmakers.
Temple/Preston - model gives Temple a small edge. The market is similar, so I'll avoid.
Collins/Rodriguez - this should be safe for Rowby, but he's a bit on the short side and with an unknown quantity, I don't really want to put anything on this.

Second/third round games:

Murschell/Smith (R2) - oddly a no bet, I was expecting Ross to project better than nearly 70/30, so 4/7 isn't a tempter.
Humphries/van der Voort (R3) - 0.25u van der Voort 5/4, Vincent's quietly opened up well this year and projects as a huge favourite on 2019 stats, and a favourite on the 12 month sample by about as much as the market thinks he's an underdog.
Alcinas/Aspinall (R3) - half tempted to go with Toni on year long stats, but Nathan's improved of late to the point where I'm half tempted to go the other way.
Jones/Kamphuis (R2) - no bet here, market favours Jones but not by much, I'm getting him as a little bit better but the edge is insufficient.
Mansell/Noppert (R3) - not touching Mansell with a bargepole and not touching Noppie at near 1/3.
Richardson/Lennon (R3) - 0.25u Lennon 8/11, extremely surprised the market is this close. It's a bit closer on recent form but long haul Steve ought to be 1/2 or there abouts.
Wilson/Dudbridge (R2) - line appears around 60/40 in favour of Flash which is similar to what I'm seeing.
Clemens/Lerchbacher (R3) - no bet, Gabriel should win but Zoran has just enough about him that just the right side of 1/2 offers no value on Clemens.
Edgar/Eastwood (R2) - this ought to be a bet on Eastwood, but I can't look past Edgar on this one to raise his game.
North/Huybrechts (R3) - not much in this one at all, line is 60/40 Richard, I have it a bit closer and Ronny might not be the worst stab given Richard's mediocre start to the year.
Marijanovic/van Baelen (R2) - line looks fine in this one. I've got Robert having a small edge, 6/4 is nearly enough to stab at Davy, keep an eye out, any drift should be jumped on.
Baker/Harrington (R2) - Scott's a big favourite, results indicate that it ought to be right, but the figures I've got are giving Ryan a fighting chance. I'm more inclined to believe the eye test on this one though.
Hudson/Goldie (R2) - bookies can't split them, but I'm seeing Goldie as having a 60/40 edge or there abouts, so 0.25u Goldie 10/11 for value.
Beveridge/Woodhouse (R2) - would have been looking at Luke for value on form, but he's too short against someone with Challenge Tour competence.

I've just noticed that on my writeup post, I completely missed off the Durrant section. Needless to say I think Durrant will win, but Carlin's had a good enough start himself to get a bye to round two as well, so if they come through their respective opponents (Carlin gets Bunse or Michael, Durrant gets Day or Kuivenhoven), Gavin's definitely in with a shot.

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